Twin tragedies of MH370, MH17 put Malaysia Airlines in dire straits
By Agencies Published: Jul 28, 2014 06:12 PM
Once a reputable airline in Southeast Asia, Malaysia's flag carrier Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has been pushed further to the brink of financial collapse with a bleak fate after two air disasters in a span of several months.
Speculation has been swirling as to whether the government- backed airline would be able to steer its way out of the extended turmoil following the disappearance of MH370 in March and the crash of MH17 this month, which claimed over 500 lives in total.
The disappearance of MH370 with all 239 on board while en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing already had a negative impact on ticket sales, and the airline could face a similar slowdown with the crash of MH17 in eastern Ukraine that killed all the 298 passengers and crew members.
The two incidents could be the last straw that breaks the camel 's back.
According to sources close to the company, MAS' shares have fallen more than 30 percent since the start of 2014, and the company has recorded net losses for the past three years.
Over the past decade, the national carrier's major shareholder, Khazanah Nasional Bhd, which has a 69.4 percent equity in MAS, has injected over 1.58 billion US dollars into MAS.
As of the end of the first quarter of the year, MAS still had about 1 billion US dollars in cash flow, but a net loss of over 110 million US dollars in the first quarter, coupled with huge amounts of expenditures incurred following the two disasters, has threatened to drain the cash flow.
If there's no additional subsidy provided by the government, the airline's cash flow would be drying up in the not-too-distant future, said many industry experts, who held that a turnaround to profitability is almost impossible in the foreseeable future.
There are now a number of theories circulating on how to bail the beleaguered MAS out -- from the possibility of a merger with other airlines or a thorough restructuring to a complete privatization or continuing to operate in the red with government subsidies.
On Sunday, the MAS said the government's review of the future shape of its business would be speeded up following the MH17 crash.
Media reports said Khazanah would make public a plan to restructure the ailing carrier, including job cuts of up to 30 percent of the current workforce and a salary reduction of 30 percent, in six to 12 months.
The plan, however, has raised concerns among the public and the circle.
Currently, the critical areas in MAS are under-staffed and there is a lack of expertise in some areas, said industry insiders. An exercise to trim the workforce in a highly-skilled industry may lead to more problems for the airline than it already has, they added.
Furthermore, they argued, if the plan is to be implemented, who will decide which employee should leave and who should stay?
In the middle of last week, there was chatter that a merger with AirAsia was the best way to save the airline.
But analysts here said this is not viable, as the two are different airlines with different business modes. MAS is a huge state-controlled company which has nearly 20,000 employees and operates at high cost, while AirAsia is a low-cost, high- efficiency carrier with much fewer staff and more flexible management.
Among all the possibilities, privatization has appeared to be mostly chased by the public as well as the industry, who applauded it as the only way to turn MAS around as soon as possible.
Nonetheless, it is not that easy for the government to make a decision to privatize the giant carrier, since it is a national carrier of strategic significance, said the analysts, adding privatization of such a complex entity may lead to unintended social problems.
The privatization of MAS is politically fraught due to heavy opposition to job losses from its powerful labor union, which has hampered previous revival plans, and its status as Malaysia's national flag-carrier, they pointed out.
There is also speculation that the country's powerful oil giant, Petroliam Nasional Bhd, would eventually emerge as a "white knight " to rescue MAS. In terms of funds, the oil company indeed is capable of pulling MAS out of the immediate desperate straits.
However, the analysts stressed that to rescue MAS, a better solution is to work out a sustainable business model to help it turn around in the long run instead of simply injecting money into the airline.