Illustration: Luo Xuan/GT
The 34th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit was held over the weekend in Bangkok, Thailand. As the ASEAN chair this year, Thailand hopes to promote the construction and development of the ASEAN community and to seek the sustainable development of relations with major dialogue partners outside ASEAN.
At present, the entire world is facing an important change that has not been seen in a hundred years, and ASEAN countries are no exception. Against such a backdrop, seeking sustainable partnerships essentially reflects ASEAN's pursuit of certainty, which includes their willingness to accelerate the progress of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to deal with trade protectionism represented by the "America First" policy. Simply put, the pursuit of RCEP once again demonstrates ASEAN's resolve to safeguard the global multilateral free trade and to seek economic certainty.
The global economy is currently showing three distinctive characteristics. First of all, due to the unilateral trade protectionism represented by the "America First" policy, the environment for global economic development is extremely uncertain and the overall global economic situation is not optimistic. Second, those traditional developed countries are undergoing sluggish economic development, which is in stark contrast with the rapid economic growth in many emerging markets. The contribution of emerging countries to global economic growth is on the rise. Third, the growth engine of global economic development is in the window period of transformation, with emerging economies such as the intelligent economy and the digital economy playing an increasingly important role in the economic development of many countries.
While ASEAN countries see the opportunities for economic development, they also sense the uncertainty of the global economic environment. In order to deal with such uncertainty, ASEAN countries have repeatedly stressed that they will not "take sides" between China and the US and that they hope both countries will find a solution to solve their frictions, through consultation and negotiation, as soon as possible. ASEAN countries, on multiple occasions, have also expressed their attitude and resolve to jointly safeguard global multilateral free trade, with the conclusion and signing of the RCEP considered a symbolic gesture in this regard. Speaking during the opening of the 34th ASEAN summit, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha called on ASEAN to conclude the RCEP by this year to form the world's largest free trade area.
From the perspective of the importance and impact of the RCEP, ASEAN's eager anticipation is justified. The RCEP is a free trade agreement that was originally proposed by the 10 ASEAN countries, which was later expanded to include China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India. The RCEP aims to establish a unified market among the 16 member states by reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Once it is concluded, the RCEP will create a trade bloc covering more than 3 billion people and accounting for about 30 percent of world trade with a combined GDP of about $21 trillion. It goes without saying that the RCEP will not only lead to a substantial increase in the volume of trade among all participating countries, but will also bring huge benefits to companies in expanding investment and increasing market shares in the regional and international markets.
In the meantime, we must also be aware of the difficulties in the RCEP negotiations and conclusion. The RCEP negotiations began in 2013, covering a total of 18 areas such as elimination of tariffs on industrial products, services trade, intellectual property rights, economic and technological cooperation and legal issues. So far, various parties have reached agreements in seven areas and are scheduled to conduct talks on the remaining 13 chapters in Australia in late June and early July. Then, during the upcoming ministerial meeting in Beijing in August and the 28th round of RCEP consultations in Vietnam in October, all parties are expected to try their best to reach an agreement before the 3rd RCEP summit in November. In the context of growing unilateral protectionism in the US, it is now crucial for the conclusion of the free trade agreement whether or not India, Australia and New Zealand show a more positive attitude in the negotiations.
China is a member of the RCEP and the largest economy in it. ASEAN's eager anticipation to accelerate the RCEP is understandable to China, and is also in China's interest. After all, China is in the same position as ASEAN in dealing with US unilateral trade protectionism, while safeguarding global multilateral free trade, and regaining the stability of the global economic order.
The author is a research fellow with the College of ASEAN Studies at Guangxi University for Nationalities. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn