Investors check the A-share market at a securities brokerage in Jinhua, East China's Zhejiang Province in July. Photo: VCG
News that China and the US have achieved a major thaw in their trade dispute will stabilize the bullish trend of the A-share market and push it to break the 3,000-point level by the end of this year, Chinese securities experts said on Monday.
Following the trade deal news on Friday, the two mainland stock markets both edged up on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56 percent to 2,984.39 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index gained 1.54 percent to 10,158.24 points.
A total of 71 stocks rose by the daily limit of 10 percent.
Experts attributed the gains mostly to the long-awaited phase one trade deal between China and the US, which significantly lowered uncertainties in the bilateral trade relationship in the eyes of securities market watchers.
China and the US on Friday night (Beijing time) agreed on the terms of a phase one trade deal that reduces some US tariffs on Chinese goods while boosting Chinese purchases of certain US products. On Saturday, China also announced that it would suspend additional tariffs on US products that had been due to kick in on Sunday.
"The substantial progress in the China-US trade negotiations would largely alleviate worries of the global capital markets," said Yang Delong, chief economist at Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund Management. He also predicted that the A-share market would break the 3,000-point level by the end of this year.
"A shares already displayed a bullish trend this year, and the trade deal would confirm that such a trend would last into next year," Li Daxiao, chief economist at Shenzhen-based Yingda Securities, told the Global Times on Monday.
The Shanghai market rose from 2,465 points at the beginning of this year to 2,984.39 points as of Monday, up by about 21 percent. The Shenzhen market rose from 7,149 points at the beginning of this year to 10,158.24 points, up by about 42 percent.
"Such gains are very rare in international stock markets, which shows that A-shares are already on a long-term bullish trajectory," Li said.
Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that A-share markets would have risen higher on Monday but for the fact that the market absorbed the trade war news beforehand, when some overseas media disclosed reaching of the phase one deal before the official announcement on Friday.
The China-US trade friction, which has lasted nearly two years, has struck a blow to global capital markets. It has added pressure on the A-share market, which has gradually grown less sensitive to the trade war fluctuations as the negotiations proceeded amid twists and turns.
Experts predicted that A-shares' bullish trend will extend into next year, boosted by the government's measures to stabilize the economy and the entry of long-term capital from Chinese and overseas institutions into the securities markets.
Apart from the trade war movement, the Chinese government stressed during the recent Central Economic Work Conference that China must guarantee stable economic operations. This would also stimulate the nation's economic growth and positively support the capital markets, Li said.