Grant Kimberley, a sixth-generation soybean farmer and marketing director of the Iowa Soybean Association, operates a seeding machine at his family farm in Maxwell, Iowa, the United States, April 26, 2019. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

With the signing of a landmark phase-one trade deal between China and the US, the amount of China's soybean imports from the US is expected to revert to normal and may "rise significantly," a senior economist close to the matter told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Chinese enterprises will, based on market conditions, buy $40 billion worth of agricultural products annually in the next two years and if the market demand is strong, the companies may buy more, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said in Washington on Wednesday (US time) during the phase one trade deal signing ceremony.

The unstable China-US relationship has dampened soybean trade between the two. But with tariffs being scrapped, soybean trade is expected to get "back to normal, if the US could maintain stable export ability," said Wang Liaowei, senior economist at China National Grain and Oils Information Center, which is under China's Food and Strategic Reserves Administration.

From January to November 2019, China's soybean imports stood at $31.45 billion, of which only $5.47 billion came from the US. 

"Soybean imports from the US may 'increase significantly,'" Wang said.

"Adjustments to the existing import structure will make room for increased imports from the US," a source close to the matter told the Global Times on Wednesday, noting that the rising US soybean imports might even exceed the rise of domestic demand and take share from other suppliers such as Brazil and Argentina.

"However, other importing countries might turn to Brazil and Argentina and buy soybeans there," the source added.

In the eyes of Wang however, imports of US soybeans are based on domestic demand, noting that China requires more than 100 million tons of soybeans every year.

"With limited domestic arable land and water resources, China's pattern of relying on imported soybeans to meet domestic consumption cannot be fundamentally changed," Wang said. "As the world's largest soybean importer, no single country can meet China's import demand."

In 2019, China implemented a soybean revitalization plan. Although soybean output reached a record 18.1 million tons, that was still less than 20 percent of domestic demand. Annual soybean imports were 88.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percent, accounting for about 60 percent of the global soybean imports.

Apart from soybeans, Wang anticipated that US products such as pork and cotton may also see a jump with the signing of the deal, as those imports are aimed at meeting emerging demand. As a result, the increase in imports will not influence China's purchases from other countries and regions.

China has great demand for agricultural products such as meat, cotton, high-quality wheat, and frozen fish, which the US has potential to supply, Wang said. "In recent years, domestic cotton production has been insufficient, and as US cotton offers high quality, it will have promising import prospects."

In addition, US high-quality wheat and other agricultural products that have a quality or price advantage over domestic ones also have import potential, the economist said.

From January to November in 2019, China's agricultural product imports totaled $135.82 billion, up 7.1 percent year-on-year, the annual increase is expected to exceed $10 billion, official data showed.