Two tourists take photos at the Bund by the Huangpu River in Shanghai. Photo: Chen Xia/GT

China's economy will show signs of significant improvement in April as the coronavirus pandemic ebbs, with industrial output forecast to grow in the positive territory. Fixed-asset investment is expected to contract 10 percent and retail sales 6 percent year-on-year, respectively, Chinese economists said.

The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release key economic indicators for April at 10 am on Friday. As the world's second-largest economy is in its second month of economic resumption, industry insiders expect all the three indexes to narrow from a steep decline in the first quarter, despite uncertainties which hang over China's foreign trade due to overseas COVID-19 outbreaks.

Wan Zhe, chief economist at the China National Gold Group Corp, told the Global Times that social retail sales - a major driver of GDP - could recover faster, boosted by local voucher issuance programs that have helped release pent-up demand. "Though it remains to be seen if such a trend can be sustained in the coming months," he noted.  

Fixed-asset investment should narrow its decline in April, driven by a boost in new infrastructure, analysts noted.

Liu Xuezhi, a macroeconomics expert at the Bank of Communications, told the Global Times on Thursday that as overseas demand weakens, investment in the manufacturing industry will remain sluggish, dragging down overall investment. "It will be extremely difficult for fixed-asset investment to return to positive territory in April,�?he said.

As most factories across China start humming again amid nationwide efforts to resume production, analysts expect industrial output to reclaim positive growth in April.

But they stressed that headwinds are likely in the second quarter given the threat of a resurgence of infections at home and fast-moving overseas outbreaks that crater the global economy.

There are many aspects of the Chinese economy that have not recovered to pre-virus levels. Full work and production resumption have yet to be achieved in some localities and sectors.

Wan said that large industrial companies face growing pressure to maintain their production momentum established in March when they were working to clear order backlogs. Many clients have now canceled their orders as the pandemic continues to impact the global economy.

Liu forecast that China's exports will slip again in May and June as the pandemic shows no signs of abating. In April, China's exports grew 8.2 percent to 1.41 trillion yuan ($198.73 billion), customs data showed.

In the first quarter, fixed-asset investment contracted by 16.1 percent year-on-year, while social retail sales shrank by 19 percent from the same period in 2019. Both declines narrowed from January-February data. Industrial output shrank 8.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter.