A farmer harvests highland barley in Gyangze County of Xigaze, southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region, Aug. 29, 2020. Local farmers are now busy in the fields in the harvest season of highland barley. (Xinhua/Sun Fei)

Australia's barley exports to China are projected to drop 10-20 percent in 2021, amid deteriorating China-Australia economic and trade relations, an expert on Chinese-Australian relations told the Global Times on Wednesday. 

The comment came as the anti-dumping tariffs China imposed on barley imported from Australia is having an effect.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said Tuesday that the country's barley exports during the 2020/21 season are expected to total 6.155 million tons, down from the previous estimate in June of 6.55 million tons, Reuters reported. That's a drop of about 6 percent.

In May, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it would impose anti-dumping tariffs of up to 73.6 percent starting from May 19, as Australian exporters were found to be dumping barley in China which was damaging the barley industry in China.

"It's anticipated that US foreign policy toward China will remain unchanged after the November presidential election and therefore the US will ask China to increase agricultural imports. Hence, China's imports of agricultural products from Australia may drop," said Yu Lei, a chief research fellow at the Research Center for Pacific Island Countries at Liaocheng University.

Along with the effect of increased costs and anti-dumping tariffs, Australia's exports of barley to China may slump 10-20 percent in 2021, Yu told the Global Times on Wednesday.

However, China "shouldn't hope that the Australian government will try to fix the worsening diplomatic ties with China just because of a drop in agricultural exports to China," Yu said.

"Compared with Australia's annual iron ore exports to China, which are worth about AUS$90 billion ($65.7 billion), its agricultural exports to China are worth about AUS$10 billion each year. Australia will not hesitate to sacrifice the foreign trade of its agriculture as well as its international education sector," he said.