US president-elect Joe Biden. Photo: VCG

 Most Western countries and US mainstream media have concluded that US President Donald Trump has already lost the election and they have started to call Joe Biden "president-elect", while Trump is still struggling with legal challenges and Biden has already started to form his cabinet.

Chinese analysts said on Thursday that although Trump might have to accept his defeat eventually, his legacy has already made irreversible changes to the US - The US society has become more conservative and polarized, and the US-led international alliance has become divided. 

These changes will make it hard for Biden to push pro-establishment policy, and in 2024, Trump might run for election again or a Trump-style party will be established to reshape the political structure of the US, said experts.

Trump on Wednesday endorsed Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel to stay on in her position, in what one source said could be a prelude to Trump's announcement of plans to run for president in 2024, Reuters reported.

A source familiar with internal discussions said Trump was telling allies he planned to run for president in 2024 and could announce it by the end of the year, said Reuters. The US Constitution allows presidents to serve two four-year terms and they do not have to be consecutive.

Before this, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham suggested on Monday that Trump should consider another run in 2024 if he loses his legal battles over the 2020 White House race, the Hill reported.

A new party in 2024?

Giving signs to the media that he might run for 2024 is like an implied acknowledgement of Trump's failure among Republicans, and by accepting the defeat, Trump and the Republicans will be able to hold on to the 72 million votes they have gotten in this election and make sure the voters will still vote for them in 2024, Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, told the Global Times on Thursday.

However, Trump might face a new group of competitors within the GOP, and those who supported him will become his rivals. A long list of Republicans are said to be considering a run for the 2024 presidential election, including Trump's own vice president, Mike Pence, according to Reuters.

"The younger generation within the Republicans such as Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton may seize the opportunity and have stronger influence by then, putting huge pressure on Trump in the next presidential election," Daio said, adding that "Trump may not even be nominated in the primary election."

Shen Yi, a US politics expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, told the Global Times that in this election we can see that the pro-establishment elites from both the Democrats and the Republicans are working together to kick Trump out of the White House, and the voters who hate the establishment elites have used their 72 million votes for Trump to prove that they are not the minority in this election.

"Trump also knows that his four-year term has changed US society profoundly, which is why he has confidence for 2024. But if he runs again, he might run as an independent candidate or establish a new party to unite the anti-establishment forces from the two major parties to challenge the establishment elites," Shen said. 

In history, Theodore Roosevelt stepped down as president in 1909, and in 1912, he hoped to run for president again for the Republican Party. However, he did not get nominated, so he formed a new party to run for the election, causing a split in the Republican Party. Trump is likely to do the same in 2024, said Chinese analysts.

Activists demonstrate after Joe Biden was declared winner of the US 2020 presidential election during a pro-migrant protest at the US-Mexico border in Tijuana, Mexico on Saturday. Photo: AFP

Trump's country under Biden governance

On Wednesday, the New York Times reported that Biden has signaled his intention to draw from a diverse cross section of America in organizing his cabinet. 

Unlike President Trump's cabinet, which is more white and male than any in nearly 40 years, Biden's list of likely top advisers "promises to reflect 21st-century sensibilities," said the report.

However, Biden's ambition to "heal" the country will meet with a series of challenges. The 2020 election will very likely conclude with a GOP-controlled Senate. Analysts said this will bring huge difficulties to the Biden-Kamala administration in making reforms, such as raising taxes.

Under the four years of Trump's presidency, the anti-science sentiment and advocation of violence have been mobilized in the US, and even evangelicalism has had the tendency of being a political force, said Lü Xiang, a research fellow on US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, and this has cast doubt on whether Biden will be able to change this unhealthy atmosphere over the next four years.  

Controlling the COVID-19 epidemic situation in the US is a very urgent task for Biden, and his team has also prioritized this mission, but the "red states," which oppose city lockdowns and shutting down of public facilities, and are even strongly against wearing masks and social distancing, are unlikely to cooperate with the federal government, Lü noted. 

Those with anti-intellectual opinions on vaccines and are against scientists like Anthony Fauci will cause a series of headaches for the new administration, he said. 

Uncertainty remains

Many Western countries are desperately expecting Biden to bring the US back to normal and create more certainty, but Chinese analysts warned that the profound changes within the US will even increase the uncertainty for Biden, and in 2024, the anti-establishment forces would be more powerful and a Trump-style administration could return if Biden fails to heal the country with successful governance.

In 2024, the US' two-party system might change to a multi-party system, as the establishment elites and pro-establishment forces in Democrats and Republicans may group together, the far-right conservative forces who support Trump may unite, and the young generation and far-left forces who support Bernie Sanders could split from the Democrats to challenge the establishment elites as well, Shen said.

"In other words, four years later, not only the Republicans would be divided, the Democrats could also face the same problem," Lü echoed Shen.

If Biden wants to bring the country back to right track, he must overcome a series of challenges, such as fighting COVID-19, economic recovery, racial equality and Medicare reform; and if he fails, the country will be more divided and more extreme rather than return to moderation and certainty, Lü said. 

"Although Trump has lost the election, if there is no "surprise," these problems and his extreme anti-establishment ideas persist, and difficulties for the new administration also remain." he warned, "The world needs to be prepared to deal with a superpower with increasing uncertainties.".