People wearing pace masks walk on the street in south China's Hong Kong, Dec. 10, 2020. Hong Kong reported 112 additional confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, the third day in a row for the figure to surpass 100. (Xinhua/Lo Ping Fai)

Hong Kong's economy is expected to stage a strong recovery in the second half of this year, with a return to positive GDP growth for the full year, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po wrote on Sunday.

The speed and strength of economic recovery depends on a number of internal and external factors, among which epidemic control will be the most critical variable, according to a blog posting by Chan on the website of the Financial Secretary of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).

Chan noted that before the epidemic can be effectively controlled, cross-border mobility and tourism may take longer to recover, and for the time being, companies are still facing a tough business environment.

"However, as different levels of prevention and control work become effective and the COVID-19 vaccine is gradually administered as expected, the effectiveness of epidemic control is expected to improve. As a result, our economic recovery is expected to gain momentum in the second half of the year," said Chan.

Zhang Xiaorong, director of the Beijing-based Cutting-Edge Technology Research Institute, said that Hong Kong's economy is mainly subject to two factors - the epidemic, which has restrained economic development, and China-US relations.

"In terms of the epidemic, it will be effectively brought under control. As for China-US relations, there will be some new uncertainties, but tensions will gradually thaw," Zhang told the Global Times on Sunday.

According to the Chan, the epidemic has helped boost some new demand and services in Hong Kong, including online shopping, work and study, as well as in-home entertainment. Enterprises need to make good use of these platforms and systems to seize the new opportunities. 

Chan stressed that the pandemic has accelerated the trend against globalization. He said that Hong Kong is seeking to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

On the road to economic revitalization, the Chinese mainland is certainly the strongest support for Hong Kong. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be an entry point for the HKSAR to join the "dual circulation" program of the mainland, said Chan.

Zhang also said that in 2020, the Chinese mainland announced a number of preferential policies for Hong Kong, which will help promote the city's economic recovery. In 2021, the sustained economic growth of the mainland is a highly likely event, which will have a positive impact on Hong Kong's recovery.