People work at the workshop of a vehicle door manufacturer in Yubei District of southwest China's Chongqing Municipality, March 11, 2020. (Xinhua/Wang Quanchao)

 
The global economy is expected to expand 4 percent in 2021, with China's economy expected to expand by 7.9 percent this year, World Bank said on Tuesday, assuming an initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout becomes widespread throughout the year.

The near-term outlook remains highly uncertain, and in a downside scenario in which infections continue to rise and the rollout of a vaccine is delayed, global expansion may be limited to 1.6 percent. Meanwhile, in an upside scenario with successful pandemic control and a faster vaccination process, global growth could accelerate to nearly 5 percent, World Bank said.

The collapse in global economic activity in 2020 is estimated to have been slightly less severe than previously projected, mainly due to shallower contractions in advanced economies and a more robust recovery in China. In contrast, disruptions to activity in the majority of other emerging market and developing economies were more acute than expected.

In advanced economies, a nascent rebound stalled in the third quarter following a resurgence of infections, pointing to a slow and challenging recovery. Aggregate GDP in emerging market and developing economies, including China, is expected to grow 5 percent in 2021, after a contraction of 2.6 percent in 2020. China's economy is expected to expand by 7.9 percent this year following 2 percent growth last year, the organization predicted.

Although the global economy is growing again after a 4.3 percent contraction in 2020, the pandemic has caused a heavy toll of deaths and illness, plunged millions into poverty, and may depress economic activity and incomes for a prolonged period, the organization warned.  

China's GDP grew 4.9 percent in the third quarter, bringing the growth in the first three quarters to 0.7 percent compared with a year ago. This is the first positive cumulative GDP growth since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, National Bureau of Statistics showed in October.

Although the 4.9 percent is lower than the previously anticipated figure of 5.2 percent, forecasted by some institutions, it is widely regarded as a noteworthy achievement. China's economy has shown resilience while casting off the impact of the epidemic.

Global Times