Trump Photo:AFP

Former US president Donald Trump plans to speak to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Florida on February 28, according to Reuters. This will be his first public appearance since leaving office. It is also a sign of Trump being politically proactive and starting to stir up US politics again.

It is not a surprise that Trump will speak at the CPAC. Just after his acquittal, Trump said his "historic patriotic and beautiful movement to Make America Great Again has only just begun." Trump is bound to find an opportunity to return to politics, and the CPAC is an important step for him. This means that the Republican Party is now at the crossroads. On the one hand, the establishment within the party is thinking of strengthening themselves. On the other hand, the grassroots of the party are moving toward the direction of right-wing populism. Trump used to be a non-traditional political figure. But he has now become an iconic representative of the main forces of the Republican Party at the grassroots. 

Some analysts believe that the Republican Party is now in a dilemma and is planning to regain control of the US Congress in the 2022 elections. In fact, the polarization is not only impacting the Republican Party, but the Democratic Party as well. For example, representatives like Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Party has impacted the typical liberalism represented by US President Joe Biden. The midterm elections in 2022 will be an important opportunity to re-examine the forces of all parties in the US.

Trump has started to frequently accept fresh interviews recently. For example, in an interview with Newsmax, he said his poll numbers have remained strong even after he was impeached. In fact, the influence of "Trumpism" is becoming more and more indelible. It does not depend on whether or not the US Congress eventually convicts Trump. For example, the US Capitol riots actually landed a major blow to the right-wing populists. But after it was quelled, many American people think that the election was fraudulent. 

That is to say, even though the riots were quelled, the participants' mentality and political positions will not be easily changed. It's a continuing trend of thought and Trump is a representative of this trend.

Also, on some China-related issues including Xinjiang, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken seems to agree with Trump's position. To some extent, the two US parties have reached a consensus to act tough against China.

This is because the US is declining, for the first time in its 240-year-plus history. Therefore, whether it is the liberal or conservative camp, they all have felt strong strategic anxiety, and even fears. Under such circumstances, they will have an extreme mentality toward the so-called challenger. Besides, the structure of China-US relations has changed significantly. Many people now believe that the two countries can be compared on the same level. This is the reason why some US elites' harbor a cold war mentality.

Indeed, "Trumpism" has caused damage to the liberal international order and undermined US' credibility globally. It may be very difficult for Biden to fix this situation within four years. Trump's destruction of the liberal international order has been subversive and structural. While Biden said that "America is back," this does not mean that the liberal international order can return to the way it was before.

And no one can promise that the Democratic Party will win the next presidential election in 2024. The US now has huge uncertainties. Therefore, whether it is US' allies or the whole international community, they all doubt that "Trumpism" will come back someday.

Sure, Biden has stated that "America is back," but who dares to say whether or not the "other America" of "Trumpists" will come back in four more years? The Biden administration can engage with multilateralism and repair the international order. But no one knows if Washington will sabotage the international order again in the future. 

Fundamentally, these uncertainties reflect the fact the US' strategic credibility is declining massively. Nor can people predict the role that Trump and "Trumpism" have ultimately played in US politics and on the country's international image. Such a role has structurally damaged the international order and the US' alliance system. This may be difficult for the Biden administration to correct with damage control or new solutions. 

The author is a senior research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn