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 China's current main childbearing age group for a second or third child are those born from 1975 to 1985, while it is less likely with those born in the 1990s and after, said a Chinese economist, noting that China should introduce measures to encourage childbearing. 

"In the near future, China will not only liberalize childbearing, but also move toward encouraging childbearing, which should happen soon," said Chinese economist Ren Zeping, also the dean of Evergrande Research Institute, in an article published on his public WeChat account on Monday.

According to a survey conducted in several provinces in China in June, families that are more willing to have a second or third child are those aged from 35 to 40, which means those who were born before 1985. The survey also showed that only 4 percent of urban families expressed willingness to have a third child.

Ren said that encouraging measures for people to have second and third children are needed, citing Panzhihua in Southwest China's Sichuan Province, which announced cash handouts of 500 yuan ($76.87) per baby every month for local families that have a second or third child, until the babies turn 3 years old. The subsidy for one child amounts to 18,000 yuan.

Panzhihua was the first city in China to release such a childbearing encouragement measure. Before the measure came out, China's central government also rolled out a set of policies and measures, including reducing costs of childbirth and education, in a bid to reach more balanced population growth in the long run.

"In the future, with the accelerated arrival of an aging society, first-tier cities will offer 3,000-5,000 yuan in monthly handouts for families that have a third child. In my opinion, China is already five years late with such plans. It shouldn't wait any longer to encourage childbirth," Ren said.

The economist said the measures to encourage childbearing could include the provision of childcare services, the protection of women's employment rights and interests, individual income tax deductions and vacation incentives, so that more people can afford to raise children.

"I think these policies should be implemented as soon as possible. Otherwise we are likely to follow in the footsteps of Japan, because our total fertility rate has fallen to the level of Japan," Ren noted.

The current fertility rate for Japan was 1.37 births per woman in 2020, according to the World Population Prospects report by the United Nations. China's fertility rate was 1.3 births per woman in 2020, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Ren also noted that China's economy could surpass that of the US in a decade, and thus become the world's largest economy.

Global Times