US President Joe Biden participates in a virtual press conference on national security in the White House in Washington, DC, on Wednesday US time, with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (right) and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in attendance via video link. Biden announced that the US is forming a new Indo-Pacific security alliance with the UK and Australia. Photo: AFP

Editor's Note: 

AUKUS, the newly formed Australia, the UK, the US security pact has triggered great concern among ASEAN countries as the deal will help Australia acquire technology to build nuclear submarines, which will break the security balance in the region. How are ASEAN countries viewing the AUKUS pact and how will they react to it? Could the deal potentially split the ASEAN bloc if the countries hold significantly different views on AUKUS? Koh King Kee (Koh), president of the Centre for New Inclusive Asia in Malaysia, shared his opinions on these issues with Global Times reporter, Xu Yelu (GT).

GT: Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia and Indonesia, have recently expressed their concerns over AUKUS. Malaysia's defense chief said on Wednesday that he will seek Beijing's views on it. In your opinion, how much impact does Australia's acquisition of nuclear submarines and technology have on Malaysia?

Koh: US President Joe Biden has said that one of the justifications for US withdrawal from Afghanistan is to focus America's resources to compete against China. The timing of the formation of AUKUS immediately after the US's withdrawal from Afghanistan is thus no coincidence. 

AUKUS is an America-led united front and an additional component of its Indo-Pacific Strategy to contain China, as ASEAN is the main theatre of US-China competition. It will be  a likely  cause to destabilize  the regional peace and security of ASEAN and thus affecting the investment climate in the region.

China has been Malaysia's largest trading partner for 12 consecutive years. And Malaysia, being the second-largest trading partner of China among ASEAN countries, naturally feels uneasy over the formation of AUKUS, especially at a time when the country needs to attract foreign investments, particularly from China, to recover the economy from the COVID-19 pandemic.

GT: The three countries in the AUKUS seek to contain China with this small "NATO" in the Indo-Pacific region. What might happen to neighboring countries like Malaysia? Will countries in the region be forced to take sides?

Koh: The geographical distance of the three AUKUS members from ASEAN/China would render AUKUS an ineffective "NATO" against China.

ASEAN nations have always preached maintaining Southeast Asia as a "zone of peace, freedom and neutrality" (ZOPFAN), free from interference by any outside powers. Maintaining ASEAN centrality vis-a-vis China-US rivalry is the consensus of ASEAN members.

No ASEAN country is likely to join a US-led "Asian NATO" in view of the close trade ties between China and ASEAN, unlike EU countries and Soviet Russia during the Cold War.

ASEAN countries most probably will take cue from America's recent chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan without due consultation with its allies. In the eyes of many, US is a self-centered superpower that cannot be trusted.

GT: There are already different voices on AUKUS within ASEAN members. For example, Philippines said it supports AUKUS's action in the region. Will ASEAN be further divided? How would this influence or harm ASEAN?

Koh: Of the 10 ASEAN countries, Malaysia and Indonesia have voiced strong objection to AUKUS. Malaysian defense minister will be visiting Beijing soon to seek China's views on AUKUS while Indonesia has cancelled Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's visit  as a sign of protest against AUKUS,

Even Singapore, Australia's most reliable ally in the region, has expressed concern. AUKUS is unlikely to find other supporters among ASEAN nations as they feared AUKUS would exacerbate US-China rivalry in the region, provoke more aggressive acts by both countries  in South China Sea.

AUKUS is unlikely to harm ASEAN unity as ASEAN countries will abide by the spirit of ZOPFAN and maintain its centrality in the big power rivalry.

GT: If the project is implemented, Australia will become the seventh country in the world to have nuclear submarines, after the US, Britain, France, China, India and Russia. You are a professional in Southeast Asian affairs. What kind of threats do you think this will bring to Southeast Asian countries? Will the export of highly sensitive nuclear submarine technology from the US and Britain to Australia lead directly to an arms race?

Koh: All ASEAN member states are signatories to the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ or Bangkok Treaty), which is committed to keep nuclear weapons out of the region.

The formation of AUKUS by Australia, UK and US is an obvious challenge to the spirit of SEANWFZ.  Many have expressed the view that after acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, it is likely Australia will further seek to acquire nuclear weapons in the future

Malaysia has expressed its deep concern that AUKUS could potentially spark a nuclear arms race in the Indo-Pacific region.

GT: Malaysian Defense Minister, Hishammuddin Hussein, said on Wednesday that "the focus now is to balance AUKUS with The Five Power Defense Arrangement, a bilateral defense relationships and multilateral agreements between Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and the U.K." Do you think the Five Power Defense Arrangements can leverage Southeast Asian countries to counter AUKUS?

Koh: The Five Power Defense Arrangement (FPDA) was set up in 1971 against the backdrop of the Cold War, to prevent the possible domino effect of the Vietnam War. As only Singapore and Malaysia are ASEAN members in the FPDA, it is unlikely that FPDA can be used as a leverage for Southeast Asian countries to counter AUKUS.

However, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia jointly control the Straits of Malacca. The three countries may jointly leverage their control of the Straits of Malacca on AUKUS with regard to the their usage of this critical waterway.