Vessels in the Taiwan Straits, July 20, 2017 File Photo: CGTN

Once the Chinese mainland engages in war to liberate the island of Taiwan and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) launches a full reunification-by-force operation, then, I believe, it will be resolved in a matter of hours. There will never be an effective resistance from the Taiwan military, nor will there be real assistance from the US and its allies.

The Taiwan military recently released a report predicting the PLA's three steps to carry out a reunification by force and also clamored the PLA's "three major weaknesses." The three steps are: complete the siege of Taiwan and engage in psychological warfare, saturation bombing and landing operations. As for the "three major weaknesses," they refer to the PLA's deficiency in cross-sea transportation vehicles, the inability to keep up with logistics and supplies and having to divide its forces to prevent the US and Japanese intervention.

I served as a soldier myself and have tracked the situation across the Taiwan Straits for a long time. People can immediately tell the report by the Taiwan military is aligned with the propaganda of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authority. It is not only causing sadness and hatred toward the Chinese mainland, but is also sending a signal to international forces, including the US and Japan, to increase the sense of urgency in US' allies to "defend Taiwan," urging them to provide more support and assistance to the Taiwan military.

It is clear that the Taiwan military is vulnerable. The mainland has developed an overwhelming military advantage. Once the reunification by force is implemented, Taiwan military would not have been able to predict our act at all. The military attack from the mainland will be beyond their imagination due to the size and equipment of Taiwan military.

The world's most recent high-intensity war occurred during the US military's attack on the Saddam's regime in Iraq in 2003, and 18 years have passed. During this period, the evolution of military technology and doctrine is accelerating. The development of unmanned equipment alone is unimaginable. Besides, China's technologies, such as unmanned aerial vehicles, are at the world's forefront.

The mainland's will to fight to the end in the Taiwan Straits has in fact overwhelmed the US'. Now, the situation in the Taiwan Straits is becoming tense and the risk of military conflict is seriously increasing. But the US has repeatedly expressed its support to the Taiwan authorities' "self-defense." The possible costs of the US intervention has become unbearable due to the overall improvement of the mainland's military capabilities, especially its nuclear deterrence. Intervention in the Taiwan Straits is increasingly becoming harder as a practical option for the US. 

As soon as the mainland's reunification-by-force operation begins, the basic capabilities of the Taiwan military will be quickly destroyed and there is little hope that reinforcements will arrive. Whoever continues to resist will be wiped out. The overall will of the Taiwan military is bound to collapse sharply and Taiwan's troops will surrender in an organized way. At that time, the top figures of the secessionist DPP authority will either surrender or be "beheaded" immediately. Few individuals might escape the island by chance.

It is impossible for the Taiwan military to fight a protracted war. I visited Taiwan in 2003 and deeply feel that the island is not a place to be defended firmly during war. At that time, I asked a retired member of the Taiwan military how long he thought the Taiwan military could defend the island once attacked. He replied that perhaps dozens of hours. Over all these years, the military gap between the mainland and Taiwan has fundamentally widened. Rejecting reunification through military means can only be a political slogan. Fight until the end is by no means the true will of the Taiwan military.

Therefore, if the DPP and the Taiwan secessionist forces want to survive, they should not ignorantly push the situation to a stage where the mainland launches a reunification by force. Otherwise, they will all sacrifice and become cannon fodder.

The author is editor-in-chief of the Global Times. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn