European Union flags fly outside the European Commission building in Brussels, Belgium, on June 9, 2021.(Photo: Xinhua)

France is scheduled to take on the rotating presidency of the European Union from January 1 to June 30, 2022. As French President Emmanuel Macron will take the opportunity to shape the EU's development path and the process of European integration, the promotion of the EU's strategic autonomy is an important part of the process. France may lead the EU to make some progress in defense construction, but the EU still faces serious constraints to realize the true strategic autonomy.

France has historically been the largest proponent and promoter of the EU's independence in both military and diplomacy. Macron has also inherited the strategic vision of the post-war French politicians. Facing changes in the EU's external environment, Macron put forward in 2017 "European sovereignty," a concept which was later accepted by European strategists.

While in recent years, as the US shifted its strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific, there has been a vacuum in security governance in EU's neighboring regions, including the Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe. In the EU's opinion, the US and NATO, which have long been playing key roles in European security, are becoming more and more unreliable. During the Trump administration, the egoist "America First" slogan had gradually made the EU disappointed. After US President Joe Biden took office, the EU has faced multiple "betrayals" including the US' hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan and the trilateral security partnership called AUKUS. The EU has realized that Washington will not hesitate to sacrifice its partners and allies for its own interests, and will be more hypocritical. The EU, especially France which has suffered more from the establishment of AUKUS, is increasingly determined to build strategic autonomy.

France will increase investment in the Strategic Compass focusing on defense capacity building and crisis management capabilities. The Strategic Compass was proposed by Germany during its rotating presidency during the second half of 2020, aimed at establishing the EU's strategic direction for the next five to 10 years, targeting the goal of strategic autonomy. As the only EU member with nuclear and global military power, France has also regarded the construction of strategic autonomy around the Strategic Compass as one of its most important political agendas during its rotating presidency. European Council President Charles Michel declared in October that "2022 will be the year of European defense."

At present, France has made some progress in promoting strategic autonomy in the EU's defense. The construction of the EU's defense capabilities requires the support of EU member states. In September, France and Greece reached a military agreement worth $3.4 billion. According to the agreement, Greece would purchase three frigates from France. In December, France and the United Arab Emirates signed a deal valued at 17 billion euros ($19 billion), for a total of 92 aircraft and related weapons.

However, France still faces multiple constraints internally and externally while advancing the EU's strategic autonomy. The first challenge is that the EU members still have different opinions on the construction of strategic autonomy. Although Germany, another major engine of the EU, agrees with strategic autonomy, its actual attitude is rather subtle. During the Merkel era, Germany was not so active in strengthening the EU's common defense construction. Within the new German government, the Green Party, which controls the federal foreign office, has long opposed military construction and has moved closer to the US and NATO in values and strategic thinking. The Nordic and Central and Eastern European countries hold serious doubts about the EU's construction of its own defense capabilities. They believe the US and NATO are the most important support for European security and have strong doubts about any security construction initiatives that may shake the status of the US and NATO.

Besides, the US will keep suppressing the EU's strategic autonomy. European security is still largely dependent on the US, which has provided the US with the leverage to interfere and divide the EU. Washington will manipulate disputes between the EU and Russia to create tension in Eurasia. This will prevent the EU from getting rid of the dilemma of dependence on the US and confrontation with Russia. The Biden administration has tried to rope in European allies and strengthened its commitment to NATO and European security, and some EU member states have increased their expectations for the US. The construction of the EU's strategic autonomy still faces a bumpy road ahead.

The author is a research fellow with the Institute of European Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn