Photo: Liu Xidan/Global Times

As France officially took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU), some European anti-China politicians, media outlets and the US have become more eager to drag the EU into the spat between Lithuania and China. They are attempting to elevate the bilateral dispute into a confrontation between China and the bloc. 

The Politico Europe on Thursday, citing an anonymous senior French government official, claimed that France will "take measures very quickly" to push for the EU to resist Beijing "in support of Lithuania." The remarks were quickly interpreted as a signal that the EU would "punch back quickly to stop China holding the bloc hostage in a snowballing trade conflict over Lithuania." Anti-China Lithuanian politicians such as Matas Maldeikis and Dovilė Šakalienė expressed their gratitude for "France's leadership" on Twitter, hyping again "China's attack against Lithuania is an attack against the whole EU."

Chinese observers believe that the words of the unnamed Paris official were nothing but a trial balloon. 

"As French presidential elections loom, the Macron government takes further pushing EU integration as a measure to strengthen its political image," Gao Jian, director of the Center for British Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times, noting that showing a tough gesture against China over the Lithuania case helps the Macron government consolidate its image, and also caters to the anti-China forces that cannot be underestimated in European politics. 

The Paris official's remarks were used by some media and anti-China politicians to create the impression that the EU will stand up against China for Lithuania. But will France lead the EU to confront China in support of Lithuania, even at the cost of a trade war with China? So far, what the EU has offered to Lithuania is only verbal support. Obviously, the bloc has been well aware of Lithuania's and the US' attempt to incite hatred against China in Europe and drag the whole of Europe into the muddy water. 

"The EU is unlikely to follow the US playbook," Gao said. 

US trick

Lithuania is a tool the US is using to rope the EU into its entire anti-China strategy. After China and Lithuania fell into a row due to Lithuania's provocation on China over the Taiwan question, the US has been actively promoting the escalation of the dispute into one between China and the EU. 

Washington expressed support for the Baltic country on many occasions and has actively solicited international support for it. When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on January 3 with the Bucharest Nine (B9) group of eastern flank NATO Allies, they highlighted their "solidarity with Lithuania" in the face of escalating "political pressure and economic coercion" from China. On Friday, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai for the second time in a week expressed strong US support for Lithuania and the EU in the face of "economic coercion" from China.

All of this high-profile US support is aimed at encouraging Lithuania to continue to serve as the US' anti-China proxy in Europe and act as a pawn to smear China. It's also attempting to fool the EU to pay the price for a sole member's diplomatic blunder. But how about the US itself? Except for granting a $600 million export credit agreement to Lithuania after it screwed up relations with China, the US has been sparing no efforts to talk about its support for Lithuania and the EU. 

EU needs to weigh up carefully 

Although the EU is a bloc, which emphasizes it should speak with one voice, the EU must judge whether what Lithuania is doing right or wrong, said Sun Keqin, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. 

Sun noted that Lithuania, in order to cater to the US, not only provoked China, but also tried to drive a wedge between China and the Central and Eastern European countries as well as between China and the EU. 

Lithuania provoked China without consulting other EU members, so why should the EU be asked to pay the price for Lithuania's mistake? If the EU stands up for Lithuania, it's an instance of the tail wagging the dog. Lithuania will not be the last member who mistakenly thinks it could leverage a major political power game and cause troubles for the bloc. 

"All 27 countries of the EU are facing a complicated external environment. Today, it is Lithuania; tomorrow it may be other EU members. If they all play with fire as Lithuania is doing, the bloc will be kidnapped into a major power competition by a certain member's diplomatic adventure. Can the bloc afford it?" Sun asked.  

China's response to Lithuania's provocations is legitimate. It has always firmly supported the EU's integration and strategic autonomy, and has no intention to undermine the EU's interests. 

The EU is now facing many urgent tasks like dealing with the pandemic, resuming the economy and tackling climate change, which all require China's cooperation. Moreover, China is the EU's biggest trading partner. The EU itself will suffer heavy losses if it sabotages relations with China for Lithuania. 

In fact, it has been reported that several member states are "deeply unhappy" with how Lithuania handled the Taiwan question and relations with China. 

Will Lithuania correct mistake? 

China and Lithuania currently have been locked in a stalemate. If without the support and instigation of the US and pro-US forces in Europe, Lithuania may have already changed course, as confronting China is not in line with Lithuania's interests at all. China didn't impose aggressive economic punishments on Lithuania as the Baltic country and the US hyped, but Chinese firms are voluntarily avoiding Lithuanian products due to growing business risks. Many Lithuanian firms have reportedly been affected badly because the Lithuanian government insisted on going its wrong way, ignored China's warnings and continued to touch China's red line, claiming that 10 years of operations have been destroyed in one go. 

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said on January 4 that it was "a mistake" to allow Taipei to open a representative office in Vilnius using the name Taiwan. With confronting with China increasingly hurting Lithuania's interests, more and more Lithuanians will realize the current government's wrong path serves no national interests and Lithuania is only a cannon fodder of the US in its competition with China. 

In a November poll commissioned by the Lithuanian Radio and Television, only 34 percent of respondents supported Lithuania's current position on the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, while 41 percent did not approve of it. A survey by Vilmorus in late December showed that the Lithuanian government's approval ratings have hit lowest in decade. The share of respondents who said they trust the government fall to 17.3 percent in December, from 21 percent in November, and those who distrusted rise to 47.8 percent, from 39.6 percent. 

After all, most Lithuanian people even don't know where the Taiwan island is, but they will have to bear the risk of livelihood due to the government's wrong course on the Taiwan question. The anti-China foreign policy has aroused great dissatisfaction among Lithuanian people. 

How long can the government sustain the wrong road without people's support? 

The author is an editor of the Global Times. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn