What will Lithuania's courtship toward US bring? Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

As Lithuanian people grow discontent over leaders' wrong and costly China policy, the government is under mounting pressure to correct the mistakes it has made in tackling China relations. 

Just 13 percent of Lithuanians support Vilnius' hardline policy toward China, according to a government poll, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday. The survey conducted by a private company on behalf of Lithuania's foreign ministry showed that just 1 percent of respondents rated Lithuania's policy, which has seen Vilnius sour ties with the Chinese mainland and bolster ties with the Taiwan island, "very positively," with 12 percent viewing it "positively."

First of all, it's quite interesting to note that the poll was conducted on behalf of the Lithuanian foreign ministry. With the China-Lithuania spat expanding from the diplomatic field to the economic arena, Lithuania is suffering more and more losses. The Lithuanian government needs to find an out. The possibility that the government was testing public opinion, and exploring ways to end the confrontation with a soft landing and return the bilateral relations to the right track in some way cannot be ruled out. The poll results could serve as a justified reason for the government to correct its hardline course toward China if it has any intention to right a wrong. 

To seek courtship with the US, Lithuania has foolishly and recklessly become an anti-China vanguard and provoked China over the Taiwan question. The US is attempting to kill two birds with one stone by instigating Lithuania to confront China. First, the US aims to undermine China's diplomatic interests and consume China's diplomatic resources. Second, Washington hopes to drag the EU into the China-Lithuania spat, pushing the bloc to the forefront of confrontation with China and increasing uncertainties for future China-EU relations.  

Lithuania's confrontation with China at the instigation of Washington serves the interest of the US, but it has not brought any benefits to itself. Instead, it has caused pernicious consequences for Lithuania, triggering a louder voice against its government's policy toward China. Lithuania's shadow cabinet issued a statement, saying it hopes Lithuania-China relations can be normalized, and recognizes Taiwan as an inalienable part of the Chinese territory. It expects the Lithuanian government to redress its mistakes and rename the "Taiwanese Representative Office" to the "Taipei Representative Office."

There is no doubt that Lithuania is paying the price for its credulity to the US. This is an absolute strategic miscalculation. The US has always been an instigator, but after the deterioration of China-Lithuania relations, the US must not have fulfilled its promise to the nation. Lithuania was deceived by the US. This is a profound lesson that it must learn.

Another mistake the Lithuanian government has made is that it underestimated China's determination and will to defend its core interest due to its insufficient understanding of the sensitivity and seriousness of the Taiwan question. 

Lithuania is also making a simple calculation. China is only Lithuania's 22nd largest export market, so the Lithuanian government simply believes souring relations with China won't bring them heavy losses. According to Lithuanian National Radio and Television on Monday, Deputy Foreign Minister Mantas Adomėnas said Lithuania only expected deterioration in bilateral relations with China and minor losses for Lithuanian businesses after a "Taiwanese Representative Office" was opened in Vilnius. Apparently, they failed to realize the reality of the world's industrial integration. The China-Lithuania economic spat has impacted the supply chain of Europe, dealing a heavy blow to the Lithuanian economy. 

Judging from Lithuania's diplomatic style, it will be possible for it to change course if there are no rewards from Washington. But it will have to face obstacles. The US is one. The US has managed to create a breach in its diplomatic game in Central and Eastern Europe. Now if Vilnius changes its mind, it will be a slap in Washington's face, proving once again that the US' global influence is indeed waning. Washington is, undoubtedly, not willing to see this happen, and pro-US forces in Europe will try everything to stop it.

Moreover, the island of Taiwan will keep supporting Lithuania under the influence of the US. It may promise even greater economic cooperation and aid to try to calm Lithuania down. It was announced by Taiwan authorities on Tuesday that the island will step up its economic cooperation with Lithuania with a $1 billion credit fund. One billion may sound enormous, but as economic and trade cooperation between China and the EU strengthens, China has diplomatic influence to resist the impact of $1 billion. Taiwan authorities mistakenly think they can upgrade the relations between the island and Lithuania with "dollar diplomacy." However, even if Vilnius, for now, can withstand the current fragile situation, in the long run, it will have a better understanding of the respective economic influence of the Chinese mainland and Taiwan.

Lithuanian people and companies are paying for Vilnius' wrong and costly policies toward China. People are discontent with the government, as its approval rating has fallen to a decade record low. It's time for Lithuania to think about how to fix its mistakes.

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Yu Jincui based on an interview with Gao Jian, director of the Center for British Studies at Shanghai International Studies University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn