Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

US Representative Michael McCaul told reporters in a conference call on Friday that the Chinese mainland will "invade" the island of Taiwan sometime after the upcoming Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, the New York Post reported Friday.

The Republican congressman from Texas then called on the US military to strengthen its presence in the Taiwan Straits and to arm the island with more weapons.

While some officials from the US military have predicted the mainland will use force to "capture" the island of Taiwan by 2027, McCaul has surprisingly put forward an earlier time, as if he is anticipating the Chinese mainland will take action sooner. But his remarks are understandable if we look into who McCaul is. 

McCaul is chairman of the Republican-led China Task Force in the House and the ranking Republican of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. As a US congressman with great political power, he is known as a China hawk. Over the years, McCaul has attacked the Chinese mainland on issues such as COVID-19 virus origins tracing, Xinjiang-related affairs, and the island of Taiwan. 

He is particularly a huge "supporter" of Taiwan, from urging the US to recognize the island's "independence," to supporting Taiwan's participation in the World Health Assembly, to sponsoring the "Taipei Act."

Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, said it is no surprise to him that McCaul made such a statement from the Representative's position. But it is a completely baseless, subjective assumption. The Chinese mainland has always stressed that it is ready to do its utmost to strive for the peaceful reunification. But at the same time, it will never leave any room for any form of "Taiwan independence" secessionist activities. "This is the two sides of the same coin," said Xin, "And it is a clear, basic principle of the mainland that has remained unchanged for decades."

In recent years, many US politicians have called for a tougher attitude from the US vis-a-vis the Taiwan question. These voices cannot have a real impact on the decisions of the US government, but they can harm China indirectly. "By playing up the wave of supporting Taiwan, these politicians may prompt the Congress to pass more Taiwan-related bills, urge the US government to sell more arms to Taiwan, and cause bigger concern or even hostility from the American public toward the Chinese mainland," Xin noted.

Some US politicians have kept  hyping the possibility of an early mainland "attack" on the island of Taiwan with clear intentions. Some use such sensationalist claims to gain media attention and personal political gains, but for McCaul, it may be also about economic benefits.

According to independent news outlet Sludge, McCaul is the second-largest congressional investor in the US defense industry with a total investment of $635,000. Since McCaul is already the second-wealthiest US congressman in 2021, he might make even more money by advocating more arms sales to Taiwan.

McCaul is definitely not an isolated example. It has become normal for many US congressmen to keep stirring up trouble by hyping "threats" and conspiracy theories. This is related to the iron triangle of the military-industrial-congressional complex that has long formed in the US. According to Xin, the three sides in this triangle work together to make huge profits by waging wars abroad and hype the so-called threats. This is a chain of interests and political logic that has worked for many US politicians for many years.

"Many congressmen have become de facto spokespeople for these military industries or interest groups. For them, everything is about business," Xin noted.