Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

An American movie called the Butterfly Effect implies how the flap of a butterfly's wings in South America can cause a heavy rain in North America. There is a similar effect in reality - many factors, including even minor ones, have influenced US President Joe Biden's postponement of the 2022 State of the Union Address. However, his team is still worried that the thousands of US truckers who have agreed to march on Washington, encouraged by marches in Canada and Australia, could lead to a repeat of the Capitol Hill riots in 2021.

The country that deems itself the "beacon of democracy" to the world, has lost the confidence it had since the end of the Cold War in the aftermath of events on Capitol Hill. Even protests in other countries can scare the White House. The benign channels of public feedback are becoming narrow and limited in the US, creating a new structure that arguably triggered the trucker protest. The delay of the State of the Union Address has set a new record in modern American history. And it cannot be ruled out that the malfunctioning feedback channels are a cause.

Historically, US presidents' State of the Union addresses, dating back to 1934, have been delivered in January. Since taking office, President Biden seemed to be always procrastinating. His first address to congress as president was on April 28, 2021. The 2022 State of the Union address was announced to be delivered in early March, two months later than usual. What is in Biden's mind? What can Biden show in his 2022 address? Besides "America is back" and repeated denunciations of Russia's "undermining of Ukraine's sovereignty," domestically, he seems unable to deliver a big gift to the mid-term elections that begin in March - his approval ratings have sunk to record lows and the American truckers' march is also expected in March. 

Biden's economic agenda appears to be making progress, but his $1.75 trillion social spending bill is still languishing in Congress, opposed by Democrats. Biden's speech would be the latest scheduled State of the Union address since 1934. Many have asked "Why?" 

Political struggle in the US may be a reason, which is obviously related to the degeneration of its politics. The delay of the State of the Union address is an attempt to buy Democrats as much time as possible to push the $1.75 trillion social spending bill through Congress. The US midterm elections will kick off on March 1, and Biden chose this point for the address just to celebrate the Democratic Party's first year in office with some good news. And of course, the surging COVID-19 cases in the US might also contribute to the postponement.

Ironically, to the American public who don't care much about the State of the Union, the truckers seem more like a group of chivalrous men who really care about America's future, compared to selfish politicians. This reversal of roles is comical. After all, the majority of Americans' disapproval for Joe Biden, another failed US president, has grown steadily over the past year in office.

The Biden administration has failed to fill the loopholes in American democracy, particularly in the areas of electoral law reform, curbing public violence, ending partisan rivalries, and preventing misinformation. Americans are stuck in a cycle of hoping for a change under a new president. 

But instead of restoring America's pride and dignity, the stubborn and erratic Biden administration has made Americans more anxious about the future of their democracy and even a civil war. There is widespread pessimism, from the public to the elite, that America's credibility in upholding good democratic practices has been shattered, and some even talk of the collapse of American democracy by 2025. 

The delay of the State of the Union address reflects the deep pain and malaise of American democracy. Surely, the recent Ukraine crisis seems to have saved Biden a bit of face among its Western allies, but no one knows when the next surprise in American politics will occur. More strange things might happen under incompetent Washington elites, with more negative new historical records to be made.

The author is an associate professor at the School of International Relations of Beijing International Studies University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn