Sikh devotees offer prayers during celebrations to mark the birth anniversary of the first Sikh Guru, Guru Nanak Dev, at a Gurudwara, or Sikh temple, in Jammu, the winter capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir, Nov. 19, 2021. (Photo by Nitin Kanotra/Xinhua)

India is poised to overtake China as the world's most populous country but has it done so already?

"It's internet disinformation that India has overtaken China in population size," said Huang Yinghong, a professor at the O.P. Jindal Global University in India, denying a recently viral claim on Chinese social media. 

Huang said that comparing the two populations is only meaningful if they're calculated using the same statistical method, not to mention that the number quoted by self-media doesn't come from an authoritative official Indian source.

The number of 1.415 billion comes from a population clock on an Indian medical information website called Medindia, whose data sources and calculation methods are alleged to be defective, China Business Network reported.

Reputable Indian media outlets haven't reported such news recently. Further, the Indian government should have conducted a census in 2021 but it hasn't released the results yet due to the COVID-19 pandemic, said China Business Network.

Huang said that given the population growth trend, India's population will surpass China's sooner or later. But India's large proportion of young people in the demographic structure will only become an advantage with good education, good industries and sufficient social respect.

"India's birth rate has decreased as a result of economic development and the government's encouragement in lowering it," said Huang.

According to Worldmeters.info, a real-time global statistics website that is often quoted by Indian media outlets, India has about 1.403 billion people at present.

China's National Bureau of Statistics said in January that China had a population of 1.4126 billion at the end of 2021. According to the UN's 2019 World Population Prospects, India may overtake China as the world's most populous country in about 2027.

Global Times