A YU-20 aerial tanker of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command Air Force takes off for a joint blockade mission around the island of Taiwan on August 9, 2022. The tanker aircraft can significantly increase the operation time of other warplanes.Photo: Courtesy of PLA Eastern Theater Command's Sina Weibo account

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) continued its open and transparent military exercises around the island of Taiwan on Tuesday, after US President Joe Biden's "buck-passing" comments that he was concerned about China's military drills. Chinese analysts said the Biden administration has dodged the root cause for the escalated tensions in the Taiwan Straits and does not consider thoroughly the consequences of its reckless moves, which is the most fatal flaw in Biden's China policy. 

Chinese analysts warned that cross-Straits and China-US relations face growing uncertainty and instability with possible more radical moves by the US in supporting Taiwan secessionist forces through more arms sales and military training, as well as inciting more Western politicians to visit the island. China and the US are facing high risks of miscalculation and even crisis since multiple bilateral communication channels have been canceled. 

As for US military's possible move to send warships through the Taiwan Straits, Chinese analysts said that it was more of a "symbolic and cheap" move to pacify American politicians, Taiwan secessionists and anti-China forces who feel upset since the US military has not taken any practical moves over China's countermeasures, but the PLA has fully prepared no matter how the US will flex its muscles. 

On Monday, Biden in his first public comments on the Taiwan question since Pelosi's visit claimed that he was not worried about Taiwan but was concerned about China's military exercises. 

"I'm concerned they are moving as much as they are," Biden told reporters in Delaware. "But I don't think they're going to do anything more than they are," Reuters reported. 

CNBC said Biden's remarks reflect a broader opinion within the Biden administration that Beijing does not intend to "invade Taiwan," "as least not in the near term."

This was echoed by US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl who said the US still believed it was unlikely "China would try retake Taiwan militarily in the next few years," according to Reuters. 

Yang Xiyu, a senior fellow with the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times that Biden has deliberately criticized China's moves but avoided talking about what triggered them.  

Following the Biden administration's frequent buck-passing tricks, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu said on Tuesday that the US should shoulder its international responsibility and obligations, and not make excuses for its mistakes.

And the so-called broader opinion within the Biden administration that China may not solve the Taiwan question with force in next few years indicates that the US may not plan to challenge China's sovereignty through dangerous moves in the near future, at least not before Biden's first term ends in 2024, as the Biden administration knows clearly that whether the PLA will be forced to take action is directly related to whether the US will stir up tension in the Taiwan Straits, Yang said. 

However, several Chinese analysts believe that the US will not drop its Taiwan card, instead it will create more crises by supporting Taiwan secessionist forces militarily and politically. 

Yang said China and the US will face more confrontations over the Taiwan question, and the US is likely to speed up arms sales to the Taiwan authorities and enhance military training and intelligence sharing with Taiwan military. 

"The US is moving its tools used in Ukraine since 2014 to the island of Taiwan to push forward its false claim of 'today's Ukraine is tomorrow's Taiwan,'" Yang said. 

The US has also publicly smeared China's moves in the Taiwan Straits and compared it with Russia's military operation against Ukraine. In response, Ma said on Tuesday that the US' claim has ulterior motives, and the Taiwan question is completely China's internal affair and different from the Ukraine issue. He said the US has a habit of stirring things up.

Analysts said China-US relations have entered a dangerously unstable period with risks of miscalculations and crises running high. 

A Beijing-based foreign affairs expert who requested anonymity told the Global Times that the US will take more risky moves for sure on its China policy, but neither Biden nor Congress thought thoroughly about the consequences, and this is the most fatal flaw for Biden's China policy. 

He said with the US moving further on the dangerous path over the Taiwan question, the international community will be more deeply aware that the one-China principle is the international consensus and the cornerstone of the stability of the global order. If it is undermined, the global order will be in a state of crisis, he said. 

Drills continue

The PLA Eastern Theater Command continued its realistic combat-oriented joint exercises in the sea and air space around the island of Taiwan on Tuesday, with the focus being joint blockades and joint support operations, the PLA Eastern Theater Command announced on the day.


The Navy sent destroyers and frigates, and the Air Force sent early warning aircraft, fighter jets, aerial tankers and electronic warfare aircraft for the drills, focusing on maintaining air superiority, aerial refueling and maritime support and honing the capabilities of joint blockade under complex electromagnetic environment, the PLA Eastern Theater Command said.

J-16 fighter jets and a YU-20 aerial tanker were seen in a video released by the PLA Eastern Theater Command.

From day one to Tuesday, the PLA has practiced capabilities like land-based, sea-based and air-based long-range precision strikes as well as seizing air superiority and control of the sea including air combat, sea assault and anti-submarine warfare. With the drills around Taiwan expected to become routine, experts reached by the Global Times believe the PLA to practice and hone more of its capabilities, including those involving amphibious landing and aircraft carriers.

The Type 075 amphibious assault ship Guangxi attached to the PLA Eastern Theater Command Navy recently carried out a number of training exercises including integration with helicopters, maneuvering in formation and replenishment at sea across multiple sea regions, the PLA East Sea Fleet announced on Monday in a press release.

Amphibious landing forces like the Type 075 amphibious assault ship and the Type 071 amphibious landing ship could join the drills around Taiwan island soon, analysts said.

Neither of the PLA's aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and the Shandong, has been featured in official reports on drills around the Taiwan island as of yet, despite experts affiliated with the PLA telling the Global Times that an aircraft carrier group will join the drills.

Aircraft carriers are expected to deter and cut off routes of external force interference from the east side of Taiwan island, while also joining the attack on the island, experts said.

US warships coming?

The PLA drills' focus on joint blockade on Tuesday came after the US reiterated on Monday that it will continue to send warships through the Taiwan Straits despite the PLA drills.

"The US Navy is expected to conduct some freedom of navigation operations in the region in the coming days," the website of the US Naval Institute USNI News quoted Colin Kahl as saying during a press briefing on Monday.

Now that the PLA has extended its drills around the island of Taiwan without giving a conclusion date, plus China's cancelation of theater commanders' talks, defense policy coordination talks and military maritime consultative agreement meetings with the US as countermeasures in response to Pelosi's provocative Taiwan visit, questions have been raised over the US' decision to insist on sending warships through the Taiwan Straits.

In June, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stressed that China has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Straits. This means if US warships or warplanes want to pass the Taiwan Straits, they must not carry out any provocative activity, Song Zhongping, a Chinese mainland military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times.

But transits of US military vessels and aircraft in the Taiwan Straits are always sensitive. It is difficult not to think the US is intentionally making provocations particularly under the current situation, analysts said.

The PLA can set new navigation restriction zones amid its consecutive exercises around Taiwan island, and this will deny US warships from entering the Taiwan Straits from a tactical level, Song said.

At a time when three major China-US military and defense talks have been canceled, if the US insists on sending warships through the Taiwan Straits where the PLA is holding drills clearly aimed to deter US interference, the risk of an accidental conflict is high, analysts said.

The US must realize the PLA will not give in an inch when it comes to safeguarding national sovereignty, security, and the major core interests like the Taiwan question, Song said.