Builders work on a tower crane in Pazhou Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy Pilot Zone in Guangzhou, South China's Guangdong Province. Photo: IC

The reconstruction of the world order is accelerating amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis. Although globalization, as an inevitable trend of economic development, will not end, it has become a consensus that globalization has entered a period of in-depth adjustment, according to a report released by the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), a Chinese non-governmental think tank based in Beijing, on Monday.

Entering 2023, as China optimizes its epidemic prevention and control measures and exit and entry policies, the country will continue to provide a strong impetus for global economic development, read the report.

The CCG released the "2023 China and Globalization Report" at the beginning of the new year, which summarizes and forecasts the trends and prospects of globalization in the coming year from ten perspectives, including China-US relations, the Ukraine crisis, the international financial system, the Belt and Road Initiative, international tourism, digital economy, and climate change.

The report pointed out that China-US relations may reach a new historical point in 2023 and usher in a new window of stability. The two sides will still conduct interactions and exchanges cautiously, and avoid a further decline in bilateral relations.

There will still be ups and downs in China-US relations. For example, the US will continue to contain China multilaterally through its network of alliances and shape the competition in various fields. Regarding the Taiwan question, science and technology, human rights and other areas, the US will still create relevant uncertainties.

However, both China and the US will maintain a common bottom line and adjust to changes. The two countries will maintain relatively close high-level contacts as well as maintaining reasonable bilateral exchanges and normal people-to-people exchanges to a certain extent. 

In the fields of trade and global governance, the US will continue to cooperate with China to a certain extent to maintain the stability and survival of the existing global governance system, the report said.

According to the report, the Ukraine crisis may enter a stage where negotiations and conflict coexist in 2023. If the international community intervenes properly, the crisis may be "contained" , but the global fragmentation caused by the crisis will continue.

The report also said that an anti-Russian camp dominated by Western countries has formed globally. With the decline of the economic strength of European countries, the leadership of the US in the West has been further consolidated, while the middle-power member states of ASEAN, the CPTPP and the IPEF can influence the international order and enhance the international discourse by participating in regional international political or economic organizations.

From the economic point of view, the Ukraine crisis will not change the trend of economic globalization, but the crisis will lead to adjustments in the relationship between the world's three major regional value chain systems, and a closer integration of the two major value chain systems in the US and Europe.

In 2023, the global economy will experience "stagflation," that is, economic stagnation and inflation, which will lead to a recession in some economies around the world in the coming year.

However, China's economy is less affected by "stagflation." As the domestic market order is gradually restored, consumption is expected to become the main driving force for economic growth, and China's position in the global industrial chain, supply chain and value chain will also be steadily improved, the report noted.

The year of 2023 also marks the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative. The initiative will continue to effectively promote the economic and trade exchanges and development between China and the countries along the routes, and begin to form effective mutual promotion and linkage with various regional economic cooperation mechanisms.

At the same time, the Chinese mainland has implemented effective strategies and shown sufficient strategic patience, making maximum efforts to stabilize the situation across the Taiwan Straits, said the report, adding that these strategies and strategic patience will continue to drive stability in 2023. 

With the victory of the Kuomintang in the mid-term elections, Cross-Straits economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation and integration in various fields are expected to usher in new progress.

In 2023, as the epidemic prevention situation in China enters a new stage, both international tourism and studying abroad will see a strong recovery, and continue to promote the development of globalization. 

The people-to-people exchanges will help calibrate Western perceptions of China, eliminate misunderstandings among the international public, and promote new progress in understanding and communication between China and other countries.

Global Times