US President Joe Biden walks with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky through the colonnade of the White House, in Washington, DC on December 21, 2022. Photo: AFP

The danger of "another World War" in Europe is increasing, said Chinese military experts, as a NATO senior military official said the US-led military bloc is ready for direct confrontation with Russia. Ukraine and Western countries have recently agreed to talk for more weapon supplies including long-range missiles and warplanes. The experts predicted that Russia will launch a new round of offensive before NATO's assistance is transformed into Ukraine's combat capability on the battle fields.

In an interview on Sunday with Portugal's RTP TV channel, Chair of the NATO Military Committee Rob Bauer said that the US-led bloc is ready for a direct confrontation with Russia Replying to a question on the matter, he asserted: "We are ready." But Bauer also stressed the precondition of such dangerous scenario, saying that "NATO is going to respond only if Russia crosses the red line by invading one of NATO member states."

At the same time, Russia has recently declared more military progress on the battlefields. According to TASS, The Blagodatnoye settlement near Soledar of eastern Ukraine has come under control of Russia's forces, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner private military company, said on Sunday.

Cui Heng, an assistant research fellow from the Center for Russian Studies of East China Normal University, told the Global Times earlier this month that the performance of Russian forces in Ukraine has been improved since Moscow appoint Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to serve as commander of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, and after a series of combat, Ukraine has suffered from great losses of troops and military vehicles and equipment. 

Bauer also admitted that the US-led military bloc should be better prepared because currently "Russia has the military initiative." This kind of concern among Ukraine and Western countries just made them agree to talk about more offensive military supplies after they reached agreement on the issue of supplying more advanced main battle tanks, said analysts. 

Ukrainian servicemen unload a Boeing 747-412 plane with the FGM-148 Javelin, anti-tank missiles provided by US to Ukraine as part of a military support, at Kiev's airport Boryspil on February 11, 2022. Photo: AFP

Missile and warplanes

According to the AP, Ukraine and its Western allies are engaged in "fast-track" talks on the possibility of equipping Ukrain with long-range missiles and military aircraft, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on Saturday.

Podolyak said Ukraine's supporters in the West "understand how the war is developing" and the need to supply planes capable of providing cover for the armored fighting vehicles that the US and Germany pledged at the beginning of the month.

However, in remarks to online video channel Freedom, Podolyak said that some of Ukraine's Western partners maintain a "conservative" attitude to arms deliveries, "due to fear of changes in the international architecture."

Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Sunday that "Kiev will always pay efforts to drag its NATO allies to directly fight with Russian troops in Ukraine, as this is probably the only way for Kiev to turn around the current situation. But Washington is not stupid, so it won't be used by Kiev, but will keep using Kiev to undermine Moscow."

Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military expert, told the Global Times on Sunday that "if Ukraine eventually receives weapons like F-16 fighter jets, armed by NATO members, and long-range missiles, as well as main battle tanks, then Kiev will be able to launch counterattacks in some regions that are currently controlled by Russian troops." This could happen before the end of this winter or a period of time after the winter, Wei said.

Danger of 'World War'

Song said that "Russia won't wait and see Ukraine troops to get fully armed by those NATO weapons," so Russian troops will likely launch a new round of major offensive to maximize their advantage and victory before the situation gets more difficult in the future.

Chair of the NATO Military Committee Bauer's statement that "NATO is ready for direct confrontation with Russia" is actually a clear message from the West that NATO won't get involved directly as long as Russia keeps its "military operation" within Ukraine, experts said. 

But now some NATO members like Poland are actually taking their own action to reinforce Ukraine, and this will create more uncertainty if Russia's potential major military offensive also cause huge casualties to the NATO members' military personnel in Ukraine, analysts said.

Another problem is that if Russia cannot achieve major military victory before NATO military assistance to fully armed Ukrainian forces, Ukraine could bring great losses to the Russian side in Crimea and other regions within Russian territory, and then Moscow will have to retaliate heavily, and this would cause escalation for sure, Song noted. 

"As long as NATO gets involved more directly, the situation would immediately turn into a confrontation between NATO and Russia, and the outbreak of World War III in Europe would become an event with high possibility," Song said.

Since Bauer has said that NATO is ready for direct confrontation with Russia, it's clear that NATO is preparing for the worst scenario, and so is Russia, experts noted.  

Zhang Jun, China's permanent representative to the UN, on January 13 called on the international community to create conditions for dialogue and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and to redouble efforts to open up new prospects for peace in 2023.

The current situation in Ukraine is a result of the deep-seated security imbalance in Europe, Zhang told a UN Security Council briefing on Ukraine, noting that only when parties concerned overcome differences and sit down at the negotiation table, a fundamental solution can be found to end the conflict and rebuild the European security architecture.