Members of the China Search and Rescue Team transfer an earthquake survivor in Antakya in the southern province of Hatay, Turkey, Feb. 12, 2023. Photo: Xinhua

In the wake of the massive earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, a paper previously written by Chinese earthquake researchers sparked concern among Chinese netizens, which claimed that a strong earthquake in the Eurasian seismic zone could lead to a similarly strong earthquake impacting the Chinese mainland within three years. In response, earthquake experts explained that this conclusion is not particularly significant from a probabilistic statistical point of view, and there is no need for public panic. 

In addition, the China Earthquake Network Center has concluded after research that the earthquake has no direct impact on the occurrence of strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland in the short term.

The paper, which attracted heated discussion, named "On the Relationship between Seismic Enhancement of the Eurasian Seismic Belt and the Occurrences of M≥7 Earthquakes in [the Chinese Mainland]" was published on Chinese journal Earthquake in 2014. The results show that when the ratio of the annually seismic energy released by the M≥7 earthquakes in the Eurasian Seismic Belt, where Turkey and Syria are located in, to that released by the M≥7 earthquakes in the whole world is about 50 percent, and an M≥8 earthquake occurs in the Eurasian Seismic Belt, there would be more than one M≥7 or M8 earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland in the following three years. 

Although the conditions for that conclusion are expected to be met after the major earthquakes took place Turkey and Syria, the public does not need to panic. This is because the prediction is not particularly relevant for future earthquakes in light of past data, seismologists told the Global Times.

In the past 100 years, the average probability of an M≥7 earthquake in China is two times in three years, explained Sun Shiyi, a researcher at the CENC, to the Global Times. 

"This means that the probability of an M≥7 earthquake occurring in China within three years is relatively high, judging from any point in time," he said.

The paper is an academic study for scientific specialists. Comparing past and future data is a statistical concept, and there is no need for the public to pay deliberate attention and panic, another geophysical research scholar who requested anonymity told Global Times.

In addition, the CENC believes that this major earthquake in Syria, Turkey, will have no direct impact on the occurrence of stronger earthquakes throughout the Chinese mainland in the short term.

China is in the eastern part of the Eurasian seismic zone and Turkey is in the western part, and the distance in between is very far. The CNEC experts have counted the relationship between earthquakes near Turkey and M≥6 earthquakes in the Chinese mainland over the past 100 years and found no direct correlation between the two within three months, said Liu Jie, a researcher at the CENC, China Central Television (CCTV) reported.

Another fact that may put the public's mind more at ease is that the actual situation in recent years shows a relatively low level of global seismic activity since 2020.

According to statistics released by the Chinese Ministry of Emergency Management, since 1900, there have been an average of 133 M≥6 earthquakes, 20 M≥7 earthquakes and one M≥8 earthquake per year worldwide.

And from 2020 to 2022, a total of 316 M≥6 earthquakes, 36 M≥7 earthquakes and one M≥8 earthquake have occurred globally, averaging 105, 12 and 0.33 each per year, which is significantly lower than the historical average.

In addition, experts explained that the occurrence of earthquakes with high magnitude does not necessarily mean that high casualty events will occur.

Earthquakes that cause harm are very complex issues that can only be judged based on a combination of factors such as when they occur and their specific location, Sun said. 

"Historically, there have been earthquakes of very high magnitude but no casualties, and there have been earthquakes that have caused secondary disasters resulting in tragic casualties. One of the reasons for the high hazard of this earthquake in Turkey is that it involved several large and medium-sized cities, all of which are densely populated areas," he said.

Two powerful earthquakes jolted Turkey and Syria on February 6 and more than 1,900 aftershocks followed, causing thousands of buildings to collapse, killing more than 36,000 people as of Monday and leaving millions homeless. Rescuers are still pulling unlikely survivors from the ruins.

After the major earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, China recorded a 4.3-magnitude earthquake in Heyuan, South China's Guangdong Province on Saturday and a 2.8-magnitude earthquake in Beijing on Sunday, both of which did not cause casualties.

Experts and government departments explained that the level of construction in these areas is fully protected against such low-level earthquakes.