Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (center) salutes troops during the 87th anniversary celebration of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, at the military headquarters in Quezon city in suburban Manila on December 19, 2022. Photo: AFP

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has concluded his five-day Japan visit with enhanced security ties, while his "open attitude" to a bilateral security pact similar to the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US has drawn concern from observers. 

Observers believe the Philippines is walking on a tight rope and bringing the risk of introducing external interference into the South China Sea region. With its enhanced security ties with the US and Japan, the Philippines' ability to resist pressure could wane, as the US will surely force its allies in the region to join its hostile Indo-Pacific Strategy. 

Marcos said on Sunday he saw no reason why the Philippines should not have a VFA with Japan if it boosts maritime security and ensures greater protection for Filipino fishermen. But he would exercise it cautiously "because we do not want to appear provocative," Reuters reported. 

During Marcos' visit, the two countries penned a deal that allows their armed forces to work together during disaster relief, an agreement seen as a step toward a broader pact that could allow the countries to deploy forces on each other's soil, according to Reuters. 

Ge Hongliang, director of the China-ASEAN Maritime Security Research Center at the Guangxi University for Nationalities, told the Global Times on Monday that Marcos has reiterated having a pragmatic and independent foreign policy, and enhancing security ties with the US and Japan is part of that approach. 

Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Monday that such a VFA, if realized, will become a threat to regional stability, considering the US has just expanded accessibility to Philippine bases through a VFA.

Marcos Jr expects to beef up the Philippines' defense, but it is important to understand China's stance and the high sensitivity of such enhanced security relations with Japan and the US, Song said.

Song pointed out that another priority for the Philippines is to accelerate the negotiations over the code of conduct (COC) in the South China Sea to exclude non-regional countries from the region, transforming the South China Sea into a "sea of peace, stability, friendship and cooperation." 

Both Song and Ge believe the Philippines is betting on both sides amid the US-China rivalry, but what will benefit the Philippines and ASEAN the most is upholding ASEAN centrality and a policy balance.