Tourists visit a traditional scenic area in Yuzhong District in southwest China's Chongqing Municipality, Feb. 10, 2023. Chongqing has launched a variety of activities at nighttime to boost night economy since the beginning of this year. (Photo: Xinhua)

As China shrugs off the impact brought by the epidemic after the country changed its COVID response in light of the evolving situation, China's official GDP growth target, which is closely watched by the world as an indicator of China's economic confidence, has come under the spotlight at the two sessions. 

Chinese economists and institutions told the Global Times that policymakers are expected to announce a growth target of 5 percent or even higher, in order to maintain high quality development amid a downward global trend.  

Economists predicted that China's GDP growth would be the highest among the world's major economies, and China's contribution to the global economy this year is likely to be its greatest in recent decades.

The 14th National People's Congress (NPC) will kick off its first annual session on Sunday, and the first session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) will be convened on Saturday.

China's growth target is expected to be unveiled at the opening of the NPC session on Sunday, when Premier Li Keqiang will deliver the annual government work report to lawmakers.

China's GDP expanded 3 percent in 2022, which is lower than the target of around 5.5 percent set for its economy last year. 

Although the growth rate is lower than the target set, authorities said that achieving it "was not easy" as China faced multiple challenges last year.

Lian Ping, head of the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, predicted a growth rate of above 5 or 5.5 percent, citing the fact that China's economic growth has slowly been returning to normal as the continuous impact of the epidemic ebbs. 

After the impact of the epidemic gradually receded, China's consumption recovered rapidly, real estate bottomed out, and there is no doubt that economic growth will remain above 5 percent, Lian told the Global Times on Friday. 

Amid the earlier-than-anticipated recovery, the IMF raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2023 to 5.2 percent in January, up 0.8 percentage points from its projection in October of last year, driven by a rebound in private consumption.

So far, the 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland have all published their economic growth goals, ranging from 4 to 9.5 percent, with most setting targets of around 5 to 6.5 percent. 

"What we need now is high-quality development, which can promote industrial transformation and thus promote the long-term sustainable development of China's economy," Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times.

It is expected that investment, bond issuance and major infrastructure projects will be mentioned in the government work report as ways to lift the Chinese economy, as well as boosting the confidence of private enterprises, Cao said. 

Chinese economists also said that economic development ambitions, from the central down to local levels, are high, which has also injected confidence into GDP growth. 

Nomura Securities also expects Beijing to set this year's GDP growth target at "around 5.5 percent," which is the same as last year's and close to their forecast for the 2023 GDP growth of 5.3 percent. 

UBS said the economic growth target for 2023 is set at "around 5 percent," leaving some room for flexibility and the possibility of economic growth exceeding expectations. 

In the annual Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing in December, the meeting demanded that economic stability be made a top priority and that steady progress is pursued while ensuring economic stability for the next year.

Chinese economists said that China's GDP growth this year could be the highest among the world's major economies, as China's economy has quickly emerged from the epidemic and consolidated its recovery momentum.

Against the backdrop of a global downward trend, China's contribution to the global economy this year may be the largest in recent decades, Lian said. 

In its three-year fight against COVID-19, China posted outstanding results in its economic development and epidemic control, reinforcing its status as a leading engine for the global economy.

China's average contribution to global economic growth exceeded 30 percent during the 2013-2021 period, ranking first in the world, according to a report released by the National Bureau of Statistics in September last year.