Travellers from a Xiamen Airlines flight arrive at Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok on January 9, 2023, as China removed Covid-19 travel restrictions. Photo: VCG

China is expected to see the “hottest” May Day holidays over recent five years, as bookings for domestic travel have surged over 7-fold year-on-year by early April, recovering to the same level as pre-COVID-19 in 2019.

The rebound of China’s tourism sector, along with other positive factors including resilient foreign trade and stable infrastructure investment, sends a positive signal for the recovery of the Chinese economy. Analysts forecast that the country’s GDP may grow around 5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, while accelerating to even around 8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter amid continuous release of domestic demand potential.

The number of bookings for domestic travel increased over 7-fold year-on-year as of April 6, and recovered to the level during the same period in 2019, according to data Chinese travel booking site Trip.com sent to the Global Times. It said in a report that bookings for outbound travel had jumped over 18 times over the same period.

By April 12, the total number of bookings for relevant services on domestic bed and breakfast provider muniao.co during the May Day holidays (between April 29 and May 3) has reached 2.3 times that of the same period in 2019, according to data released by the platform, Beijing News reported.

The significant growth in the country’s tourism sector during the May Day holidays will drive up comprehensive recovery of China’s catering, hospitality, aviation and logistics sectors, contributing to the country’s overall economic recovery and providing an important impetus for the growth of world economy, analysts said.

“The remarkable tourism data sends a clear signal that China’s economy has embarked on the track of full-fledged recovery,” Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times.

Cao forecast that the country’s national retail sales may grow by 4.5 percent in March on the back of a raft of policies promoting consumption, while the country’s GDP is likely to grow around 5 percent in the first quarter.

He said there are multiple highlights in China’s economic recovery in the first quarter of 2023, citing sales of new-energy vehicles and relevant components, better-than-expected exports in March and high-speed growth of infrastructure investment.
 
“The first-quarter GDP growth rate will mark a good start of the Chinese economic recovery, which bodes a promising prospect of achieving the full-year goal,” Chen Fengying, an economist and former director of the Institute of World Economic Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times.

The economy will likely further rebound to as high as 8 percent between April and June given a lower base the same quarter last year, she said, urging more efforts in increasing people’s income and expanding domestic demand.

China’s export volume reached 2.15 trillion yuan ($312.85 billion) in March, up 23.4 percent from the previous year, while soaring 48.4 percent month-on-month, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Thursday.

In addition to consumption and exports, China’s investment has maintained stable growth since the beginning of 2023. China’s fixed-asset investment may grow by 5.6 percent year-on-year during the first three months of the year, while infrastructure investment is expected to have grown by 10 percent, while real estate investment dropped 5 percent, Lian Ping, chief economist and head of the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, told the Global Times.

With the launch of major projects, the country’s infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in the second quarter, which along with stable manufacturing investment and rebound in property investment, will jointly boost stable growth of fixed-asset investment.