Children and parents take part in a traditional sport game at Longtan Park in Beijing, capital of China, June 22, 2023. A series of activities including boat races, performances, interactive games were held during the Dragon Boat Festival here. (Xinhua/Ju Huanzong)

China's economic growth is expected to hit 7 percent during the second quarter this year thanks to the lower base effect last year and a steady recovery of consumption, according to market forecasts. 

Some analysts say that the central government may roll out more stimulus policies starting from the third quarter in various aspects including real estate, consumption and new economy to ramp up pace of economic recovery.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to release a raft of major macro-economic data for the second quarter on Monday, including GDP, industrial output, capital investment and retail sales.

"Given the lower base of 0.4 percent year-on-year growth recorded in the second quarter of 2022, the GDP is expected to expand 6.5-7 percent between April and June this year," Chen Fengying, a research fellow at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times on Sunday.

A GDP growth rate of around 7 percent points to the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2021, when GDP growth rate reached 8.3 percent. In the first quarter of 2023, China's GDP expanded by 4.5 percent.

Cao Heping, an economist from the Peking University, told the Global Times on Sunday that second-quarter economic performance likely outperformed the first quarter, despite headwinds including weakening external demand and rising geopolitical tensions.

He forecast the economy will grow by around 5.8-6.2 percent in the second quarter. "From large tourists groups seen at scenic spots during both the Qingming Festival holidays and the May Day holidays, as well as recent purchasing managers' index (PMI), we see encouraging signs of comprehensive recovery of domestic consumption, improving factory activities and strengthening economic momentum," he said.

The PMI for China's manufacturing sector ended a three-month decline to stand at 49 in June, up from 48.8 in May, NBS data showed.

China's import and export volume of goods reached 20.1 trillion yuan ($2.8 trillion) in the first half of the year, up 2.1 percent year-on-year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Thursday.

While domestic consumption hasn't fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter, the recovery momentum has sustained from the first quarter and is expected to post a double-digit growth, Chen said.

Analysts have confidence in the long-term positive prospects of the Chinese economy, calling for more favorable policies to stimulate business and consumer confidence. 

"The central government may roll out more pro-growth policies to stabilize the real estate sector, drive up consumer spending and ensure employment in the second half of the year," Chen said, adding that she forecast more large-scale projects and major fiscal stimulus measures to be announced to bolster new economy, and artificial intelligence innovations.

According to a State Council circular in mid-June, the central government is considering policies covering four aspects, including improving macroeconomic policies, expanding effective demand, strengthening and optimizing the real economy, and preventing and resolving risks in key fields.