A scene of Shanghai Photos: VCG

 Over one-third of respondents from 20 countries expect the future relationship between China and the US to "maintain status quo," in the coming year while nearly one-third hope for relations "to be eased." Meanwhile, over half of respondents from 20 countries expressed great concern over the spillover effects of US domestic issues that might negatively impact the world, according to a recent survey conducted by the Global Times Institute (GTI) released on Saturday. 

In the survey, close to 20 percent of respondents chose "conflict" as their preferred outcome in the question related to their expectations in the development of bilateral ties between China and the US in the coming year.

From November 7 to December 1, 2023, the GTI conducted a survey using a commercially available online sample library to invite respondents across 20 countries to participate. The survey was conducted in 16 languages including Chinese, English, Spanish, German, Arabic, and French, and targeted residents aged 18 and above in 20 countries including China, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia, Italy, Germany, France, the UK, the US, Australia, South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Brazil, and Argentina. A total of approximately 17,000 valid questionnaires were collected. 

The survey covers a range of questions, including how respondents in foreign countries view China-US relations, the Chinese path to modernization, and how respondents anticipate their countries' relations with China will change. 

Apart from China and the US, over 30 percent of respondents from 10 countries hope for the trend in the bilateral ties between China and the US to be eased with Germany, Italy, Indonesia, and South Korea exceeding 40 percent. Japan, Kenya, and India had over 40 percent of respondents hoping for the relationship to "maintain status quo," while 14 other countries had over 30 percent opting to maintain the status quo.

Seven countries had over 20 percent of respondents choosing "conflicts" between China and the US in the coming year with respondents in Argentina, Turkey, and India exceeding 30 percent.

For China and the US, the proportion of respondents hoping for the relationship to remain unchanged was very close. Chinese respondents had a higher percentage (9 percent) expressing hope for easement in bilateral ties compared to their American counterparts, while American respondents had higher percentages opting for conflicts and opining it was "hard to say" compared with Chinese respondents.

In 2023, China-US relations experienced a tumultuous year marked by various events from the "balloon incident," and the relentless imposition of restrictions by the US on China across multiple domains. However, a temporary easing of tensions occurred with the summit meeting between the two countries' leaders in San Francisco in November.

The interactions between China and the US this year have reached a new level, the highest in the last five years, Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times in a previous interview.  

Wu noted that the success of the San Francisco summit has become a highlight in the bilateral relations in recent years, or could be seen as a new starting point for China-US relations. And the question now is whether the two sides can move forward. 

On average, over half of the respondents from the 20 countries expressed a high level of concern (very worried + somewhat worried) about the spillover effects of US domestic political, economic, and social issues and their adverse impact on the world, with over a quarter having some concerns.

Looking at individual countries, Indonesia, the Philippines, Italy, Germany, and Kenya had over 60 percent of respondents expressing a high level of concern. Nine countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea, had a similar high proportions or above 50 percent. 

Regarding the US itself, 22 percent of respondents expressed that they were "very worried," and 32 percent expressed that they were "somewhat worried." A quarter of respondents noted that they were "a little worried." 

According to the GTI, when comparing the 2023 and 2022 survey results, 18 countries (excluding China and the US) showed a decrease in the perception of the probable success of the current US government in containing China's continued development by roping in other countries, dropping from 48.3 percent to 45.4 percent, a decline of approximately 3 percentage points.

In 2023, except for the Philippines, India, South Korea, and Brazil, the assessment of US success by the other 14 countries was below 50 percent. Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Australia showed a significant decline in their assessment, ranging from 7 to 10 percentage points. Most other countries experienced minimal changes.

Chinese respondents' assessment of the probability of success of the current US government containing China's continued development by roping in other countries dropped significantly from 42.6 percent in 2022 to 28.3 percent in 2023, indicating a significant increase in confidence in countering US containment.