Photo:Chen Tao/GT

China's economic growth rate is expected to reach around 5 percent in 2024, reversing a continuous trend of decline in GDP growth seen since 2009, Li Daokui, director of Tsinghua University's Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking, told the Global Times on Saturday.

"Two highlights for the economy in 2024 are whether the consumption sector could reach a new peak during the May Day holidays and whether the property sector will stabilize by the end of 2024," Li said.

He stressed that China is still a growing economy, which is still in its youth and has great potential to be further explored.

By the end of 2023, China's total GDP reached 126 trillion yuan ($17.67 trillion), up 5.2 percent year-on-year, successfully meeting last year's annual growth target of around 5 percent, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held in Beijing in December pointed out that it is imperative to uphold high-quality development as the unyielding principle of the new era, faithfully implement the new development philosophy on all fronts, and effectively improve the quality of our economy and promote its growth within a reasonable range.

Li said the conference is one of the most important CEWCs over the past decade, as the proposal of upholding "high-quality development" and a series of related policies are timely and key for reversing the trend of actual GDP growth rate below its potential.

Expressing full confidence in the Chinese economy, Li said some "long-term problems" that hinder China's economic potential from being fully tapped must be addressed. According to Li, the country's social governance focused on standardization and order during the past 10-plus years, which has a contraction effect on economic development. He said the country's macro-policy direction must be adjusted timely.

"The potential of our economy remains great," Li said, noting that China has strong production and innovation capacity, with a large number of graduates every year forming a solid basis for the country's innovations and accelerated growth.

Our problem lies in the lack of effective demand, which leads to a chain effect including lower margins at enterprises, poor stock market performance and spending contraction, according to Li.

Li said that China's fiscal policies should also shift its focus from mainly driving infrastructure investment and reducing tax and fees to stimulating consumer spending in order to promote high-quality development in the new era.

In this regard, Li suggested helping migrant workers settle down in urban regions by helping them buy a home, ensuring their children can go to kindergartens and schools in cities and towns and offering subsidies for their parents living in rural areas. On the other hand, the authorities should reduce consumption restrictions for middle-income groups in cities and provide support for families that are willing to have more children.

The housing market will continue to see adjustments in 2024, with property investment to be primarily made in first-tier and quasi-first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an in Northwest China's Shaanxi Province and Changsha in Central China's Hunan Province, Li said. "These cities are expected to gradually relax housing purchase restrictions. Cities that see population influx, for example, Xi'an and Changsha, may see development of the property sector," he said.