The coast guard of East China's Fujian Province organizes a flotilla and conducts a law enforcement patrol in waters near Kinmen on February 25, 2024, the China Coast Guard said in a press release on the day. Photo: China Coast Guard

As the Chinese mainland's maritime law enforcement authorities on Sunday conducted more patrols in waters near Kinmen in response to Taiwan authorities' brutal and deadly act against fishermen from the mainland, analysts from the island of Taiwan on Monday said the mainland is sending a strong signal that its law enforcement forces are eligible to and capable of taking further measures in not only waters around Kimen, but also Matsu and Penghu islands. 

This would be a stern warning to the secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the failed handling of the tragedy that resulted in the deaths of two mainland fishermen during the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays has exposed the incompetence and arrogance of the DPP authorities, said experts from Taiwan. 

The island's opposition party, the Kuomintang, or KMT, sent its vice chairperson Andrew Hsia to lead a delegation to kick off a seven-day visit to the mainland, according to a report by Taiwan media. Hsia will pay condolences over the incident that resulted in the deaths of two mainland fishermen at an appropriate occasion, media reported. 

Chinese mainland experts said that as the KMT is not the ruling party on the island, it cannot play a key role in this incident, and the mainland will receive the delegation with kindness but the KMT's attitude won't affect the mainland's determination to retaliate against the DPP authorities' ruthless acts, adding that the mainland's law enforcement in relevant waters will be firmly conducted on a routine basis.  

Li Fei, a professor at the Taiwan Research Center at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Monday that "the mainland's action is not targeting the compatriots and civilians of Taiwan, and the mainland will keep being friendly to political groups like the KMT, but it will remain tough and firm in striking against secessionists on the island. The mainland's law enforcement forces will do what they must to safeguard the security of our people and the peace of the region."

Law enforcement actions

The coast guard of East China's Fujian Province on Sunday organized a flotilla and conducted a law enforcement patrol in waters near Kinmen, the China Coast Guard (CCG) said in a press release on Sunday. 

The patrol by large-tonnage CCG vessels has had a great impact on the island, as many observers from the island said that the Taiwan authorities' vessels are far smaller and weaker than the CCG's, and once the mainland realizes effective control over relevant waters, the supply line that links the island of Taiwan and Kinmen will be in trouble.

Li Cheng-chieh, a retired senior officer from the Taiwan military who previously served in the Kinmen islands, told media that he doubted that Taiwan authorities have the capability to handle the current situation, as the mainland's vessels won't target the civilians of Kinmen, but in the future, are likely to sail through the waters between the islands where Taiwan military forces are being deployed in Kinmen.

"If the mainland vessels intercept Taiwan's vessels carrying ammunition and fuel to supply its military forces on the relevant islands of Kinmen one day, what can we (Taiwan vessels) do about it? The DPP authorities need to consider how to handle such a situation," Li said.

Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to US President Joe Biden, said in a regional press call that Washington has been clear on its stance on "the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits," Taiwan-based media focustaiwan.tw reported on February 20. Although Sullivan declined to comment specifically on the incident, Sullivan said the US is "against any kind of action, by any party, that undermines that peace and stability."

A Beijing-based military expert who asked for anonymity told the Global Times on Monday that "the CCG vessels are fully capable of conducting routine law enforcement patrols in relevant waters, and they are totally right to do so, as this is a response to the DPP authorities' ruthless act, and if the Taiwan military and other external forces dare to get involved, the naval force of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will also be prepared for any kind of escalation."  

"It's clear that it was the DPP authorities that treated the mainland fishermen brutally and caused deaths, so there is no doubt that it was the DPP undermining the peace and stability of the region, and the Chinese mainland has the responsibility to retaliate against and punish the troublemaker threatening the regional peace, and the US has no position to interfere in China's internal affairs," the expert said. 

You Zi-Xiang, a scholar and cross-Straits affairs commentator at Shih Hsin University in Taiwan, told the Global Times on Monday that the mainstream of Taiwan public opinion believes that the DPP authorities' handling of the incident is unprofessional and unclear. They have noticed that cross-Straits ties have been further damaged, and can expect that the mainland will take actions to retaliate. 

Wang Ping-chung, a Taiwan political news commentator and former spokesperson of the New Party, told the Global Times on Monday that the Taiwan public started to become aware of the seriousness of the incident when the mainland's law enforcement vessels took actions in Kinmen waters. 

Some Taiwan observers with strategic vision see the possibility that the mainland will use this incident to expand its actual control through law enforcement patrols to not only Kinmen, but also offshore islands like Matsu and Penghu, Wang noted.