The coast guard of East China's Fujian Province organizes a flotilla and conducts a law enforcement patrol in waters near Kinmen on February 25, 2024, the China Coast Guard said in a press release on the day. Photo: China Coast Guard

The Chinese mainland is closely monitoring the actions of Taiwan island's military around Kinmen. "If they provoke or cause trouble, daring to act rashly, they will surely face failure," Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday in response to reports that Taiwan island will conduct live-fire drills in April at locations including Kinmen and Lieyu.  

Experts said the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities are trying to shape a hard-line image to confront the mainland and please its secessionist voters and Washington, who like to see cross-Straits tension as this can serve its purpose to contain China. However, the DPP will not dare take any extreme action that could really cause military conflict, yet the mainland still needs to be prepared in case of an accident or mistake made by Taiwan's military.

The DPP authorities recently announced that live-fire drills will be conducted in April in locations including Kinmen and Lieyu, sparking concern across the local community. The island's military authorities claimed that these actions are part of routine and regular training exercises, without any specific targets.

Whether it is "routine training" or "targeted provocation," the DPP authorities know better than anyone. The people in Kinmen, having personally experienced the transitions between peace and war, value peace and oppose war even more, Chen said. 

They have already made the right choice between "opening fire" and "building bridges." We are closely monitoring the movement of Taiwan island's military authority in Kinmen. Should they provoke or cause trouble, daring to act rashly, they will surely face failure, the spokesperson noted. 

On February 14, a fishing boat from Fujian was violently chased by Taiwan authorities in waters near Kinmen, causing all four people on board to fall into the water. Two of them died. The DPP authorities on the island of Taiwan have been condemned for improperly handling the incident and for illegally harassing mainland fishermen. 

The Fujian coast guard has been boosting its law enforcement patrols in the waters near Kinmen after the fatal February 14 boat incident. 

Analysts from the mainland said that law-enforcement activities conducted by the Fujian coast guard are legitimate and necessary, and these will continue and even be further strengthened in relevant waters around Kinmen, and the coast guard will not be intimidated by any acts from the DPP.

Wang Zhenwei, director of the Institute of Politics under the Taiwan Research Center at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Wednesday that Taiwan DPP authorities are trying to shape a hawkish and hard-line image by conducting military activities in Kinmen, to please the secessionist and anti-China groups within the island. "It's just like achieving the goal of propaganda via military acts."

At this moment, the military forces of the island dare not really provoke a direct military conflict with the mainland, as this would be a doomsday consequence for them, so they will also try to avoid being over-provocative and will exercise restraint when conducting drills. However, the Chinese mainland also needs to be prepared in case of accidents by the Taiwan military, which could further escalate current tensions, Wang said.   

The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office said earlier that the mainland firmly supports the law enforcement patrols implemented by mainland coast guard authorities in waters near Kinmen, as they are legitimate actions to maintain order in the relevant maritime areas. 

Also, on March 18, the Fujian coast guard reportedly found a distressed fishing boat in the waters of Weitou bay and rescued two people, both from Kinmen. One of the two men was sent back to Kinmen on March 22. 

Li Fei, a professor at the Taiwan Research Center at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the Taiwan DPP authorities' military drill is surely a provocation toward the mainland, and the US support behind them has encouraged the DPP to do so, as Washington wants the Chinese mainland to be trapped by the current Kinmen tension and spend more resources on it.

The spokesperson Chen also warned on Wednesday of foreign interference in the Taiwan question. He said that China has urged the US to stop fanning the flames of conflict and take concrete actions to adhere to the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint communiques, and turning their stated opposition to "Taiwan independence" into reality.

He made the remarks in response to the claims of a US military commander hyping the idea of the "mainland preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027." 

Admiral John Aquilino, head of the Indo-Pacific Command, said recently that he believes the Chinese mainland's military "will be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027," according to media reports. This comes as the Biden administration recently approved $300 million in military financing for the island.