A Chinese coast guard ship uses a water cannon to expel a Philippine coast guard ship near the South China Sea during the Philippines' illegal re-supply mission on March 5, 2024. Photo: VCG

The Southern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) organized a joint naval and air combat patrol in the South China Sea on Sunday, the PLA announced, on the same day of joint drills attended by the US, the Philippines, Japan and Australia, which analysts said was a highly defiant and aggressive muscle-flexing move against China amid the rising tensions between Beijing and Manila.

Chinese experts said on Sunday that China's combat patrol represents a tit-for-tat response to the US-Philippines-Japan-Australia's joint drills, illustrating PLA's firm resolve and strong capability in safeguarding China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. It shows that China, while showing great restraint on the South China Sea issue, is also well-prepared to deal with any contingency.

They also warned that external interference represented by the US in the South China Sea has become "the biggest threat to regional security and stability," and Philippines' calculation of "inviting wolf into the house" is not welcomed by regional countries and will eventually backfire.

Tit-for-tat response

In a brief statement released on Sunday morning on social media, the PLA Southern Theater Command stressed that "all military activities disrupting the South China Sea stability and creating hotspots are under control," without giving more details about the operation. 

Before the PLA combat patrol, the Chinese side made several warnings against Philippines' provocations and its attempts to introduce external forces as well as Manila's tricks of "playing victim." 

China Coast Guard (CCG) on Saturday warned the Philippines that any tactic infringing on China's rights is doomed to be futile, and the CCG will continue to regularly enforce the law to safeguard rights and interests in China's jurisdictional waters, in response to Philippine vessels' illegal activities in the waters adjacent to China's Houteng Jiao (also known as Houteng Reef) in the South China Sea.

Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said on March 28 that the Philippines' harassment and provocations are the direct cause of the recent escalation of the South China Sea issue, noting China will not allow the Philippines to act willfully.

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at the China Institute for South China Sea Studies, told the Global Times on Sunday that different from the past, the "combat patrol" highlights the preparation of actual combat. 

It's a kind of all-state, all-factor patrol, and the PLA can immediately carry out combat tasks in case of an emergency, said Ding.

The combat patrol is PLA's "tit-for-tat response" to counter and deter the muscle-flexing actions, namely the US-Japan-Australia-Philippines joint military exercises, Ding noted. "It also reflects PLA's firm resolve and strong capability to safeguard China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea."

It cannot be ruled out that the PLA's naval and air combat patrol in the South China Sea would include some particularly targeted and specific measures, said Ding.

China has shown its attitude by the combat patrol and will always respond to Philippines' provocative actions and attempts to introduce external interference in the South China Sea, Yang Xiao, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Strategy Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times on Sunday.

On the South China Sea issue, China has always shown great restraint and does not want conflicts so that the region can remain stable, but China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests are inviolable, and China will make all preparations to deal with emergencies, Yang added.  

Escalating provocations 

Citing a Japanese defense official, Kyodo News reported that the first ever "maritime cooperative activity" jointly attended by defense forces of the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines on Sunday includes "anti-submarine warfare drills" and "maritime patrols." 

According to the joint statement of the four countries' defense ministers released on Saturday, the drill, held in the Philippines' "exclusive economic zone," demonstrates the "collective commitment" to strengthen regional and international cooperation in support of "a free and open Indo-Pacific."

According to the ministers' statement, the joint drills are aimed at strengthening the "interoperability" of their forces' "doctrines, tactics, techniques and procedures." 

Arsenio Andolong, a spokesperson of Philippines' national defense department, said on Saturday that 5 naval ships from the four countries will participate in the joint drills, including the Philippines' offshore patrol vessels, BRP Gregorio Del Pilar (PS-15) and BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PS-16); the US Navy's littoral combat ship, USS Mobile (LCS-26); Australia's HMAS Warramunga (FFH-152); and Japan's destroyer JS Akebono (DD-108), the Philippine News Agency reported. 

"Judging from the content made public, the joint exercise is more symbolic, but less specific," Yang said. 

Echoing Yang, Ding believes the most important function of the joint exercise is to maintain the heat of the South China Sea issue and further manipulate international public opinion.

"The participating vessels of the four countries are not their core combat units, among which the Philippine ships are retired second-hand goods and cannot be integrated into the formation operations," Yang noted.  

Although there are "anti-submarine warfare drills," the Philippines, as the only party concerned in the South China Sea, does not have anti-submarine capability and thus cannot participate in the program, Yang added. 

This is the reason why the four countries began to hype up public opinion before the exercise began, which is nothing but to show the so-called concern to the South China Sea issue, and embolden Manila, the expert remarked.  

The joint drills also came before the three-way summit between US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr in the White House on April 11. VOA called it "part of Biden's strategy to stitch together existing bilateral alliances into broader mini-laterals to amplify US influence in Asia" and "counter Beijing." 

Before the drills, Jose Manuel Romualdez, Philippine ambassador to the US, said that Japan and Philippines were close to signing a reciprocal access agreement (RAA) that would also let their militaries train and conduct exercises in each other's countries, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. 

The Philippines has deepened its coordination with external forces over the past two years, and has conducted military exercises with the US, Japan, and the Philippines and Australia. The latest four-way drills are just a presentation to bring the collusion between the four countries from behind the scenes to the forefront, Ding said.

Chinese experts believe that the future exercises between the Philippines, the US or allies like Japan, and Australia in the South China Sea would be carried out regularly. Each exercise differs only in the area, size and type of troops involved. 

With the "support" of external forces, the Philippines is expected to continue or even escalate provocations against China in the South China Sea, with a surging ultra-nationalist sentiments, risk-taking and speculative psychology, Ding said. 

However, Manila's calculation will eventually backfire, as its approach of "inviting wolf into the house" will damage the peace and stability of the entire region, and will not be welcomed by regional countries, Ding noted. 

Ding added that the external interference represented by the US in the South China Sea issue, as well as the long-standing military presence and frequent military exercises in the region, is the biggest threat to regional security and stability.

On April 2, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with US President Joe Biden on the phone, with Xi stating China's position on the South China Sea. During the call, the Chinese side stressed that China has indisputable sovereignty over Nansha Qundao and its adjacent waters, noting the US is not a party to the South China Sea issue and should not intervene in matters between China and the Philippines. China has a strong will and resolve to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, according to Wang Wenbin, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson on April 3.