Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) patrol ships have been stationed within the lagoon of Xianbin Jiao (also known as Sabina Shoal) for as long as 45 days, effectively forging a quasi-military-grounding on the shoal, a source told the Global Times on Wednesday. Experts said the Philippines' unilateral ambitions cannot be realized, as it must consider the determination and capability of China and regional countries to maintain the status quo and peace in the South China Sea.

Two PCG vessels have been dispatched under the excuse "to ensure China does not carry out reclamation activities at Xianbin Jiao." They are anchored and moored side by side to keep their anchorage, and have formed a semi-permanent floating platform, which has become a new type of "grounding." 

Reuters reported on May 11 that the Philippines has deployed ships to Xianbin Jiao in the South China Sea, where it accused China of building "an artificial island."

Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responded on May 13 that the Philippines has repeatedly spread rumors, deliberately vilified China and tried to mislead the international community. None of those attempts will succeed. "China urges the Philippines to stop making irresponsible remarks, face up to the facts and return to the right track of properly handling maritime disputes through negotiation and consultation."

Nansha Islands, including Xianbin Jiao, are China's inherent territory, and China has indisputable sovereignty over the region. Yang Xiao, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Strategy Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the PCG ships, BRP Malabrigo (MRRV-4402) and BRP Cabra (MRRV-4409), through being anchored side by side in the lagoon of Xianbin Jiao and maintaining this position for an extended period, constitute a new type of "grounding." 

"These two most advanced Philippine maritime vessels will create a semi-permanent floating platform at Xianbin Jiao, equipped with a full range of multi-domain operational capabilities, including capacity of communication, reconnaissance, underwater detection, and helicopter landing and takeoff. They will become a military outpost for the Philippines at Xianbin Jiao," Yang said.

Yang said that the two coast guard ships are the latest model of maritime law enforcement vessels that the Philippines purchased from Japan. The BRP Cabra, commissioned since March 2018, features a bulletproof pilothouse design and is equipped with night vision devices, a workboat and a radio direction finder. It has undergone equipment upgrades to enhance its reconnaissance, pursuit and communication capabilities. The BRP Malabrigo is currently the most advanced ship in the PCG. It has a helicopter deck and hangar, allowing for helicopter takeoff and landing. The ship is also equipped with a hyperbaric chamber for use by individuals suffering from diving-related illnesses.

On May 13, Reuters quoted PCG spokesperson Jay Tarriela as reporting that the Philippine side had not documented any activity from the Chinese vessels present in Xianbin Jiao since it deployed its vessel there in mid-April.

The Philippines first conjured up an "imaginary threat" and used this as an excuse to continue the so-called monitoring of these "imaginary" activities, effectively gaining control in disguise over Xianbin Jiao, Yang told the Global Times. He believes this is a typical gray zone operation, with the malicious intent of altering the status quo and militarizing the South China Sea.

The Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) establishes fundamental principles and norms of behavior, such as "the Parties concerned undertake to resolve their territorial and jurisdictional disputes by peaceful means, through friendly consultations and negotiations by sovereign states directly concerned." It also stipulates that "the Parties undertake to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability including, among others, refraining from action of inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features and to handle their differences in a constructive manner." It has made important contributions to the collective efforts of China and ASEAN countries in maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea over the years. The DOC explicitly commits all parties to exercise self-restraint and refrain from actions that would complicate, escalate, or negatively impact peace and stability in the region.

"As long as these two vessels remain anchored and do not depart, they are likely to ground the shoal at any chosen moment. The timing of such a decision is likely to stem from the highest levels of the Philippine authorities," Yang said. He added that considering the Philippines' 1999 grounding move on Ren'ai Jiao and Huangyan Dao, as well as historical patterns of provocation and changing of the status quo in the South China Sea, such timing choices are likely closely linked to developments in the security situation in East Asia and Southeast Asia.

Yang warned that it is important to be vigilant, as one possible choice for the Philippine decision-makers is to maintain the floating platforms. They could exploit opportunities such as joint military exercises with the US and Japan to leverage their allies and create a fait accompli of grounding the vessels. Or, it may have a more ambitious idea to observe developments in major regional hotspots like the Taiwan Straits and execute groundings during moments of crisis, establishing permanent military outposts.

"Whether it's semi-permanent floating platforms or permanent groundings at opportune moments, these are unilateral ambitions of the Philippines, yet Manila must take into account China's and the regional countries' determination and capability to maintain the status quo and peace in the South China Sea," Yang emphasized.

The events of 1999 will never be repeated. On May 9, 1999, Philippine military vessel BRP Sierra Madre illegally intruded into China's Ren'ai Jiao, running aground due to purported "technical difficulties," prompting China to lodge a stern protest. Despite repeated assurances from the Philippines to remove the illegally grounded vessel and its pledge not to be the first country to violate the DOC, 25 years have passed, and the Philippines has yet to tow away the ship.