Ursula von der Leyen. Photo: VCG

Germany's Ursula von der Leyen is poised for a second term as president of the European Commission after European political leaders reached a consensus on Tuesday, according to multiple media reports. Although the EU's China policy in her current term in office was not proactive, analysts said that new factors in the future could potentially influence EU's policy in her second term.

Quoting officials from the EU, Politico said an agreement was reached among six EU leaders, namely Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

The six leaders from three main centrist groups also agreed to the package that would see former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa become president of the European Council and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas the EU foreign policy chief, according to the Xinhua News Agency. 

Officials in Brussels were keen to close the debate in a relatively swift manner due to the volatile geopolitical environment besetting the bloc. The lack of credible alternatives sped up the process, which is essentially a horse-trading game to ensure a political, geographical and gender balance, according to Euronews. 

Earlier on June 17, EU leaders have convened a discussion on the matter but have achieved no agreement, after the European Parliament election saw gains for the center-right and right-wing nationalists.

The latest deal has faced some outside criticism. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed his disapproval on social media platform X, saying the agreement promotes division rather than inclusion. "EU top officials should represent every member state, not just leftists and liberals!" he added. 

Italy's Giorgia Meloni and Czechia's Peter Fiala have also previously complained about the way the top jobs were being negotiated by the three centrist families, Euronews reported. However, observers noted that it seems unlikely that the current opposition will affect von der Leyen's reelection.

The leaders from EU member states are set to approve the deal at the upcoming EU summit in Brussels which will start on Thursday. Nonetheless, it is almost certain that von der Leyen will be reelected, observers told the Global Times, as the main centrist groups have consolidated their unity and firm stance in previous elections.

The expected reelection of von der Leyen reflects a further rightward and conservative shift in European political orientation, Cui Hongjian, a professor with the Academy of Regional and Global Governance with Beijing Foreign Studies University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

During von der Leyen's current term, the EU's policy toward China is not very proactive and often succumbs to political pressure from the US.

The emergence of new factors will inevitably affect the EU's foreign strategy, Cui said, pointing out that negative factors in the EU's policy toward China will eventually, to a certain extent, impact the EU's own interests. In response to this, there could be changes in the EU's policy during von der Leyen's next term.

The expert pointed out that the upcoming US presidential election at the end of the year will also be an important factor influencing policy changes in the EU under the leadership of von der Leyen. If there is a shift in US policy toward the EU, von der Leyen and leaders of other party groups in the EU may also change their attitudes, Cui said.