Officials of ASEAN member countries attend the Special ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia on October 27, 2022. Photo: AFP

Editor's Note:

The escalation of recent tensions between China and the Philippines raises concerns among neighboring countries in the South China Sea. How will the Philippines' provocations, instigated and supported by the US, affect the situation in the South China Sea in the rest of 2024? Why do ASEAN countries hope that the situation will be contained?

In the "ASEAN Perspective on the South China Sea" series, we collect wisdom and insights from former diplomats and scholars from ASEAN member countries. In an interview with Global Times (GT) reporter Su Yaxuan, Hassan Wirajuda (Wirajuda), former foreign minister of Indonesia, said that no country, including China, wants to see an area of potential conflict develop into open conflict, which would ultimately harm all involved, especially since countries in the East Asian region are closely interconnected.

GT: The South China Sea issue has become a hot topic of global concern. What is the most essential requirement for the current South China Sea issue?

Wirajuda: Since 25 years ago, the South China Sea has been an area of potential conflict involving China, several ASEAN member states, and the international community. The international community's concern primarily revolves around the possible restriction of freedom of navigation. In response to this, Indonesia initiated a series of workshops in the early 1990s on managing potential conflicts in the South China Sea. These workshops, while modest in format, were crucial in developing a habit of dialogue and negotiation among the countries bordering the South China Sea, aiming to create a conducive atmosphere for peaceful conflict resolution.

We should not forget that the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) of 2002 was the result of 20 years of continuous dialogue. The DOC, which outlines rules of good conduct for state parties, emphasizes restraint and the development of cooperative areas such as joint development and maritime scientific research to maintain peaceful interactions among parties in the South China Sea. However, the DOC's non-binding nature might have hindered its effectiveness, leading to increased tensions that disrupted the path of dialogue and negotiation. Promoting the relaxation of tensions and returning to dialogue is essential.

On the other hand, negotiations between ASEAN and China to conclude a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea over the past two decades have not been fruitful.

GT: Some scholars have referred to the South China Sea issue as a "proxy war," suggesting it could turn the Philippines into the "Ukraine of Asia" and endanger the entire region. Do you agree with this statement?

Wirajuda: It seems to me that this statement is somewhat exaggerated. War is not an option. In my view, no country, including China, wants to see an area of potential conflict develop into open conflict, which would ultimately harm all involved, especially since countries in the East Asia region are closely interconnected. Recent geopolitical and geo-economic shifts have made the region the center of the world, offering tremendous opportunities for all, provided the region remains politically stable and secure.

To achieve this, East Asian countries should fully utilize ASEAN-led mechanisms, where senior officials, ministers, and heads of state/government meet annually to promote regional order. ASEAN should play a proactive role, leveraging its convening power to achieve this objective.

GT: The US and Philippine media have been spreading fear of China, almost every week reporting on China's "bullying" in the South China Sea. Do you think China is a security threat to neighboring countries?

Wirajuda: What is important is that your actions and words demonstrate that there is no reason to fear China. I believe China's smaller neighbors in the region expect wise leadership from China.

The Philippines had a defense agreement with the US, providing two military bases, Subic Bay and Clark Base. The US formally ended its 94-year military presence in the area in the early 1990s, shutting down Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Base after the Philippine Senate rejected a treaty to extend the American military presence, as the Philippines sought to reduce its dependence on the US.

However, recently, the Philippines allowed the US access to four more of its military bases and later signed a tripartite defense agreement with the US and Japan. From Indonesia's perspective, in line with the ASEAN Outlook in the Indo-Pacific, we wish to see ASEAN taking a more independent path rather than siding with either the US or China. The fact that the Philippines has taken its own path somewhat weakens ASEAN's unity and centrality.

GT: Indonesia had elections this year. What are your expectations for the future development of China-Indonesia relations? In which areas can the two countries further enhance cooperation?

Wirajuda: The foundations of our bilateral relationship are very strong. In 2005, China and Indonesia signed an agreement to establish a strategic partnership. This is an agreement at the highest political level to expand and deepen all aspects of our bilateral relations, including politics, economy, trade, investment and people-to-people relations.

During President Xi's visit to Indonesia in 2013, he proposed elevating the strategic partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership, reflecting the effective implementation of the earlier strategic partnership.

The newly elected President of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, who will assume office next October, is expected to continue his predecessor's policy, working under the same Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to strengthen bilateral relations. President-elect Prabowo Subianto's recent visit to Beijing is a powerful symbol of his commitment to strengthening China-Indonesia relations. The new President of Indonesia will likely focus on not just promises of cooperation but also actual cooperation. Both countries have designed action plans and set new targets to translate the promise of enhanced cooperation into concrete actions. In addition to trade, investment in strategic minerals is also increasing, as both of our economies are among the fastest growing in the world.

Therefore, I am hopeful that under the new administration, we will be in a much better position to attain the targets of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Indonesians expect President Prabowo to play a more active role in foreign policy, including in bilateral relations with China.