Marriage Photo: VCG

Latest statistics from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs show that 3.43 million Chinese couples got married during the first half of 2024, down by 498,000 couples during the same period from last year and a record low of the same period since 2013, based on which a demographic expert predicted that the annual figure of marriage registrations in 2024 will drop to a record low since 1980. 

China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs released the latest statistics on marriage and divorce registrations during the first and second quarters of this year, showing 3.43 million couples get married and 1.27 million get divorced. 

The number of marriage registrations during the first half of this year dropped by 498,000 couples from 3.92 million couples during the same period of last year and the number of divorce registrations decreased by 43,000 couples from 1.31 million couples during the same period of 2023, Chinese domestic news portal thepaper.cn reported. 

It is also worth noting that the number of marriage registrations during the first half of this year also dropped to a record low since 2014. 

Statistics from the ministry show that the number of marriage registrations during the first half of the year have been decreasing for multiple years, from the 6.94 million during the first half of 2014 gradually dropping to 3.73 million during the first half of 2022. The number rallied slightly in 2023 with 3.92 million couple getting married during the first half of 2023. 

Based on the historical records of marriage registration, the annual number of marriage registrations in 2024 will drop to a record low since 1980, He Yafu, an independent demographic expert who tracks marriage registration data, told the Global Times on Sunday. 

According to He, statistics from the ministry show that between 2014 and 2023, except for the year 2020 when the number of marriage registrations in the first half of the year was less than that in the second half due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of marriage registrations in the first half of the year was greater than in the second half in all other years. The reason behind this phenomenon is that the Spring Festival is the most important traditional holiday in China, and many people choose to get married during this period. 

Generally speaking, except for 2020, marriage registrations in the first half of the year account for 51 percent to 54 percent of the annual total, while marriage registrations in the second half account for 46 percent to 49 percent. If the number of marriage registrations in the second half of 2024 is around 48 percent of the annual total, approximately 3.17 million couples, then the estimated total number of marriage registrations for 2024, with 3.43 million plus 3.17 million, would be around 6.6 million couples, which would be even less than that of the 6.83 million in 2022, setting a new record low since 1980 when 7.2 million couples got married, He said, adding that the number of couples who got married in the first half of 2024 was even less than half of the number in the same period in 2014. 

From the perspective of the annual statistics, the number of marriage registration nationwide reached a record high of 13.46 million in 2013 and started to decline since 2014. The number dropped below 10 million in 2019 and further dropped to 6.83 million in 2022, despite of rallying to 7.68 million in 2023. 

The main reason for the increase in the number of marriage registrations in 2023 was that many young people postponed their weddings to 2023 due to the impact of the COVID-19 during the period between 2020 and 2022, He said. The year-on-year decline in marriage registrations in the first half of 2024 indicates that the compensatory effect following the COVID-19 epidemic has gradually faded. Therefore, the total number of marriage registrations this year will be expected to continue to decline. 

According to He, the reasons for the decline in the number of marriage registrations since 2014 include a decrease in the young population, the gender imbalance with more men than women among the marriageable population, the postponement of the age of first marriage, high costs of getting married, and changing attitudes toward marriage. 

Besides, according to data released in localities, the number of newborns in the first few months of 2024 increased from the same period in 2023. Influenced by the rise in marriage registrations in 2023 and the fact that 2024 is the Year of the Dragon, the number of newborns this year may see a rebound, He said. 

However, He said the continued decline in the number of marriage registrations in 2024 indicates that the number of newborns will go downward again in 2025. Due to factors such as the decrease in the young population and low childbirth intentions, the declining trend in China’s birth rate in the long run will be difficult to fundamentally change unless substantial childbirth support policies are implemented in the future to address this challenge.