Cargo ships load and unload containers at the fully automated terminal of Qingdao port in East China's Shandong Province on August 7, 2024. Photo: VCG

China's foreign trade in goods expanded by 6.2 percent year-on-year to reach 24.83 trillion yuan ($3.46 trillion) in the first seven months of this year, hitting a new record in trade volume, customs data showed on Wednesday, buoyed by the country's manufacturing strength, rising overseas demand, as well as the diversification of its trade partners overseas.

The brisk data add to an array of fresh evidence underscoring that the world's second-largest economy has been maintaining steady growth momentum, despite facing internal and external challenges. It also underlines a bullish outlook for the country's trade engine, which observers expect could roar at a quicker pace in the second half of the year to support the economy to grow and reach the GDP growth goal of around 5 percent for 2024.

The magnitude of China's trade growth in recent months has also defied certain Western countries' protectionist measures and blatant tariff hikes imposed on Chinese goods. This underscores the resilience, competitiveness and inherent vigor of the world's largest manufacturing powerhouse, analysts said, while pointing to China's unfazed pivotal role as a stabilizer and locomotive of the global supply chain.

In the first seven months this year, China's exports jumped by 6.7 percent, while imports gained 5.4 percent, according to customs data. The 6.2-percent foreign trade expansion also outpaced the 6.1-percent rise recorded in the first six months.

"Since the beginning 2024, China's economy has generally maintained a stable performance with steady progress, and foreign trade has continued to show a steady improvement," the General Administration of Customs (GAC) said.

In July, foreign trade in goods soared 6.5 percent year-on-year in yuan terms, with exports gaining 6.5 percent and imports expanding by 6.6 percent. The year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports has been higher than 5 percent for four consecutive months, according to GAC.

"A reading of 6.5-percent in July is a relatively high growth rate, so it is palpable that trade in July sustained the robust expansion streak from the previous month. As July marks the beginning of the second half, the positive data bode well for the second-half trade development," Tian Yun, a veteran economist based in Beijing, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Tian also took note of import growth in July, reversing the 0.6-percent contraction in June, which signifies that China's domestic demand is "gaining traction in the second half of the year." 

As trade data are a barometer of economic development, the freshly released July figures have led economists to project that China's third-quarter GDP is likely to grow by around 5 percent, or at least gain pace from the second-quarter, which saw a 4.7-percent year-on-year increase.

Li Chang'an, a professor at the Academy of China Open Economy Studies of the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times on Wednesday that he expected the economy to continue rebounding throughout the second half, and on a firm trajectory to achieve the GDP growth target of around 5 percent. 

"The trade strength will buffer against headwinds, including rising geopolitical tensions and gloomy global economic outlook, while more targeted stimulus will be rolled out following major tone-setting conferences, injecting new impetus into the economic development," Li explained. 



Positive trade momentum

According to Tian, the positive trade momentum in July is bolstered by a range of factors, including growing overseas demand amid looming global interest rate cut cycle. The 2024 Paris Olympic Games have also partly helped to drive the global demands for "Made in China" commodities, ranging from sports equipment, souvenirs to other goods.

Despite US-led blockade against China's industries, the exports of integrated circuits recorded a year-on-year increase of 25.8 percent, while the exports of auto vehicles went up 20.7 percent. 

The buoyant vehicle export mirrored that the impact of tariff imposition on China's overall trade pattern remains limited, observers said. And on the contrary, the US is now "shooting itself on the feet" with its reckless crackdown on Chinese imports, which blunts its efforts to tame down inflation.  

The US reported a sharp slowdown in job growth last week, which elicited fears of an economic recession.

In contrast, Li also ascribed its limited impact on Chinese exports to the country's complete industrial chain, the resilience and competitiveness of high-tech trade, as well as private companies' strengthened trade cooperation with a more diversified grouping of trade partners. 

In the first seven months, China's trade with ASEAN, Central Asia, Latin America, and Africa totaled 7.6 trillion yuan, up 9.8 percent year-on-year, with its share in total trade gaining by 1 percentage point compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, trade with the Belt and Road Initiative partners and other members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) rose by 7.1 percent and 5.7 percent year-on-year, respectively.