Photo: VCG

Editor's Note:

The escalation of recent tensions between China and the Philippines raises concerns among neighboring countries in the South China Sea. How will the Philippines' provocations, instigated and supported by the US, affect the situation in the South China Sea in the rest of 2024? Why does ASEAN hope that the situation will be contained?

In the "ASEAN Perspective on the South China Sea" series, we collect wisdom and insights from former diplomats and scholars from ASEAN member countries. In an interview with Global Times (GT) reporter Qian Jiayin, Bunn Nagara (Nagara), director and senior fellow at the Belt and Road Initiative Caucus for Asia-Pacific, and honorary fellow at the Perak Academy, said the military element being emphasized in US-Philippine relations is disappointing and regrettable. If a country outside the region, such as the US, wishes to be involved in disputes between countries in the region, it must prioritize diplomatic efforts over military action, he said.

GT: In recent times, tensions in the South China Sea have been escalating. What do you think is the reason behind this? What is the key to managing the situation in the South China Sea?

Nagara: The claims by different countries have existed for many years and may continue for many more years with little prospect of conflict if no unfriendly actions are taken. Unfortunately, that is not the situation today as uncompromising attitudes with no effort to engage in peaceful dialogue risk possible conflict.

There can be no military solution to such disputes, because only diplomatic solutions can work. ASEAN countries generally believe that disputes should be managed through diplomatic dialogue. In the absence of effective diplomacy, the risk of conflict and war become greater. At the same time, the possibilities of workable solutions diminish.

This is not a stable or reassuring situation and no country in the region likes it. Smart policies by wise leadership prioritizing diplomacy are very much needed.

GT: In a recent interview, you mentioned that the involvement or likely involvement of outside powers is always a problem for all ASEAN countries. Lately, senior US officials have been making frequent statements expressing their support for the Philippines. What role do you think the US is playing in the South China Sea?

Nagara: Regrettably, too much attention has been placed on military action and not enough on an understanding of regional history, formal legal commitments and ASEAN policies agreed to by other countries. As a result, military brinkmanship that seriously risks conflict and war has been emphasized rather than negotiation. 

The Philippines is a treaty ally of the US and the current policies of the present Marcos government seem to assume that the US will come to defend the Philippines militarily in a conflict with another country, such as China. However, legal scholars who have analyzed the Mutual Defense Treaty, including Philippine scholars like Melissa Loja and Romel Bagares, have cast doubt on this.

The Philippines cannot be assured of direct US military assistance if needed. Nobody wants the Philippines to become another Ukraine, although that possibility exists.

GT: Last month, US and Philippine officials held a 2+2 ministerial dialogue in Manila. What is your opinion on the deepening military cooperation between the Philippines and the US? How will the Philippines serving as a military outpost for the US in the South China Sea impact the ASEAN region?

Nagara: Once again, it is a matter of regret and also disappointment that the military element is being emphasized in US-Philippine relations. The Philippines is a founding member of ASEAN and the US is a signatory to ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. This is a legally binding treaty and one of ASEAN's most important documents.

In the treaty, there is a whole section (Chapter IV) on the peaceful settlement of disputes. Signatory countries agree to renounce the use or threat of force against another country. Articles 13 to 17 of the treaty concern the settlement of disputes by peaceful means. Any policy that risks conflict is effectively banned.

If a country outside the region, such as the US, wishes to be involved in disputes between countries in the region, it must prioritize diplomatic efforts over military action. This is legally required of any country that has signed this important ASEAN treaty.

Therefore, if any signatory country becomes involved without making diplomatic efforts, it would be in direct violation of the treaty, and ASEAN collectively will have reason to doubt the political credibility and legal commitment of the country.

GT: ASEAN has always advocated for not taking sides between China and the US. How important is it for ASEAN to remain neutral for the region's interests? Does the Philippines' pro-American stance go against the interests of ASEAN countries?

Nagara: ASEAN will remain neutral because that is the core spirit of ASEAN. Neutrality made ASEAN possible and it is neutrality that enables ASEAN to survive and thrive. No ASEAN member country wants ASEAN to end its neutrality. 

ASEAN allows member countries to have their own policies because this does not compromise ASEAN as a whole. This freedom or flexibility is known as ASEAN resilience.

The present Marcos administration in the Philippines may seem pro-US but it may not be a position supported by the majority of Filipinos. Previous Philippine governments were different and future governments may be different too.

GT: Despite the South China Sea dispute, Malaysia is able to coexist peacefully with China. What kind of exemplary effect do you think the relationship between China and Malaysia has on other ASEAN countries?

Nagara: The common hope is that positive conduct will set exemplary standards for others to follow. Malaysia has good relations with China, despite disagreements in the South China Sea. Neither Malaysia nor China regards the other as a threat, so from that level of mutual trust, more mutual understanding and confidence can be developed.

Similarly, with other countries like the Philippines, it would be better to build on areas where there can be some agreement or common interest to develop mutual confidence and trust. That first step is the most important, especially when it is taken by a major country such as China. The country that initiates, and is committed to, positive developments with constructive and meaningful gestures, will earn the respect and gratitude of the region.