Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Cabra intrudes into the adjacent waters of China's Xianbin Jiao and approaches dangerously China Coast Guard ships that are in normal navigation on August 26, 2024. Photo: VCG

Editor's Note:

The escalation of recent tensions between China and the Philippines raises concerns among neighboring countries in the South China Sea. How will the Philippines' provocations, instigated and supported by the US, affect the situation in the South China Sea in the rest of 2024? Why does ASEAN hope that the situation will be contained?

In the "ASEAN Perspective on the South China Sea" series, we collect wisdom and insights from former diplomats and scholars from ASEAN member countries. In an interview with Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Wenwen, Kin Phea (Kin), director general of the International Relations Institute of the Royal Academy of Cambodia, said that the involvement of external actors in the South China Sea is a major source of tensions in the region. He believes that Cambodia's balanced approach can contribute to regional stability by preventing conflicts and promoting the peaceful resolution of disputes.

GT: What do you think is the root cause of current tensions in the South China Sea?  

Kin: In more recent developments, the tensions escalated when Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who took office in June 2022, rejected the conciliatory stance toward China adopted by his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. The Philippines grounded the BRP Sierra Madre to strengthen its claim to the Ren'ai Jiao, causing the vessel to rust and require frequent missions to resupply its marine unit, making it the most provocative flashpoint in the South China Sea.

The Philippines has strengthened its relationships with Indo-Pacific neighbors, particularly the US. The Philippines has signed deals to increase base access, joint exercise training and weapons transfers with the US. Japan has also increased its presence in the region, further intensifying the geopolitical stakes.

The involvement of external actors in the South China Sea is a major source of the tensions in the region. The military presence and support for different claimant states have exacerbated tensions and increased the likelihood of conflict. 

GT: What do these external actors hope to achieve by interfering in the South China Sea issue? 

Kin: The maritime domain remains a critical geopolitical arena as global demand for marine resources intensifies due to population growth. Consequently, naval and maritime capabilities will be indispensable tools for managing competing interests and safeguarding maritime rights.

The South China Sea is a vital maritime corridor essential for global trade. Strengthening regional alliances helps secure access to vital trade routes, including those transporting energy from the Middle East through the South China Sea and also maintaining a strong US presence in Southeast Asia. 

Given its geopolitical significance, the US aims to prevent China from becoming the dominant power in the region by supporting Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines. 

GT: What is the attitude of ASEAN toward the recent moves by the Philippines regarding the South China Sea issue? How do Philippine actions undermine regional peace and the unity of ASEAN? 

Kin: ASEAN's attitude toward the Philippines' recent moves regarding the South China Sea issue in 2024 has been cautious and somewhat divided. While the Philippines has been seeking support from ASEAN members in the South China Sea, the regional bloc has traditionally maintained a policy of neutrality and non-interference. ASEAN did issue a statement expressing concern about the developments in the South China Sea and reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining peace, security and stability in the region, emphasizing the importance of freedom of navigation and adherence to international law. The cautious approach reflects ASEAN's broader strategy of balancing relations with major powers like China and the US while trying to maintain regional unity and stability. 

The Philippines' actions in the South China Sea could potentially undermine regional peace and ASEAN unity. Increased tensions with China could lead to confrontations, destabilizing the region and making situations harder for ASEAN to maintain its goal of peace and stability. ASEAN members have varying economic and political ties with China, and the Philippines' actions could force other countries to take sides, weakening the bloc's unity. 

Actions from the Philippines could strain diplomatic relations within ASEAN, leading to internal discord. Increased military presence or conflicts in the South China Sea could disrupt trade routes, affecting ASEAN countries' economies and further straining relations within the bloc.

GT: As an important member of ASEAN, what special role do you think Cambodia can play in maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea? 

Kin: First, Cambodia's neutrality serves a significant role in promoting stability. As a non-claimant state in the South China Sea, Cambodia's neutral stance offers a unique perspective. The neutrality allows Cambodia to act as a bridge between conflicting parties, fostering dialogue and understanding. Second, Cambodia as an ASEAN member state can effectively convince and encourage peaceful mechanisms. As a member of ASEAN, Cambodia leverages its position to promote the bloc's unified stance on the South China Sea. By emphasizing the importance of dialogue, diplomacy and adherence to international law, Cambodia can contribute to building consensus among ASEAN member states. The united front strengthens ASEAN's role as a mediator and promotes a peaceful resolution.

Last but not least, economic interdependence is a powerful tool for promoting stability. Cambodia actively participates in regional economic initiatives that connect countries in the South China Sea region. 

GT: Cambodia firmly supports China in resolutely safeguarding its core interests. How does Cambodia's stance help push forward the Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea? 

Kin: Cambodia's close relationship with China fosters an environment conducive to open and constructive dialogue between ASEAN and China, potentially leading to more effective negotiations and progress on the COC. By supporting China, Cambodia can help build trust and confidence among ASEAN member states and China, which is crucial for the successful implementation of the COC and ensuring commitment to peaceful and cooperative behavior in the South China Sea. While Cambodia contributes by maintaining neutrality, leveraging its ASEAN chair role and promoting economic cooperation, the ultimate success of the COC hinges on the willingness of all claimant states to compromise.

Furthermore, Cambodia's balanced approach can contribute to regional stability by preventing conflicts and promoting the peaceful resolution of disputes. Cambodia can use its influence to encourage compliance with the COC once established, advocating for adherence to agreed-upon rules and norms to maintain peace and stability in the region. 

GT: Do you think the friendly relations established between China and Cambodia will have a demonstrative effect on other Southeast Asian countries? 

Kin: China-Cambodia relations have flourished in economic, political, social and cultural spheres. Economically, China's significant investments in Cambodia, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, have transformed Cambodia into a major manufacturing hub and significantly improved its infrastructure. The economic boost serves as a model for other Southeast Asian countries, showcasing the potential benefits of closer economic ties with China.

Politically, Southeast Asian countries are increasingly caught between the competing interests of China and the US. Some view Cambodia's close relationship with China as a strategic move to balance the influence of other major powers. Conversely, other states maintain strategic relations with the US to address challenges in the region, particularly in the South China Sea dispute. 

The China-Cambodia relationship underscores the complex interplay of economic, political and geopolitical factors shaping Southeast Asia. Balancing economic benefits with strategic autonomy and preserving regional unity will be crucial for Southeast Asian nations as countries navigate the intensifying competition between major powers.