The photo taken on May 6, 2024 shows the Philippine ships 4402 and 9701 are transferring supplies in the waters of China's Xianbin Jiao. Photo: China Coast Guard

It is likely for the Philippines to attempt to airdrop supplies to its quasi-grounded coast guard vessel at China’s Xianbin Jiao in the South China Sea and claim success to deceive its domestic audience and the international community, a Chinese expert warned on Tuesday.

China’s on-site restriction measures have been strict and powerful, and if the Philippines opts to conduct an airdrop, it will only expose its exhaustion of tricks, the expert said.

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at China's National Institute for South China Sea Studies, made the predication after the Philippines failed to send supplies in three separate attempts on August 19, August 25 and August 26 to the Philippine Coast Guard ship MRRV-9701, which has been anchored in the lagoon of Xianbin Jiao since April.

The Philippines has attempted to send supplies to its coast guard ship illegally anchored in the lagoon of Xianbin Jiao but without success, and this is the result of China’s forceful management and control, Ding told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Given the Philippines’ past approaches in sending supplies to its warship illegally grounded at China’s Ren’ai Jiao, it is very likely for the Philippines to send supplies to the MRRV-9701 at Xianbin Jiao via airdrop, Ding said.

This shows that the Philippines has run out of tricks and has to rely on political shows, Ding said, noting that the Philippine government pays little attention to its personnel on board the MRRV-9701, and is attempting to make the Xianbin Jiao a second Ren’ai Jiao.

After an aerial supply mission, the Philippines may boast its success, but this is nothing more than self-deception and spreading fake information to deceive its domestic audience and the international community, analysts said.

China’s maritime forces have undertaken comprehensive measures and made powerful responses to the Philippines’ repeated trouble-stirrings, and has greatly deterred the Philippines by showing China’s firm will and strong capabilities in safeguarding its territorial sovereignty, observers said.

China’s multidimensional management and control measures will eventually force the Philippines to withdraw the MRRV-9701 from Xianbin Jiao, they said. 

The Philippines’ challenge of China’s bottom line on territorial sovereignty issue will face countermeasures from China, Ding said.

China’s measures have been restrained and mild, but if the Philippines insists on making provocations, the country will be met with stricter restrictive measures, Ding said, urging Manila to withdraw its ship as soon as possible.