On August 26, 2024, an officer from China Coast Guard monitors Philippine Coast Guard ship 4411 which ilegally intruded into waters near China's Xianbin Jiao. Photo: China Coast Guard

The Philippines insisted on Monday that it had not given up China's Xianbin Jiao, two days after the Philippine Coast Guard ship MRRV-9701 left the lagoon of Xianbin Jiao (also known as Xianbin Reef) in the South China Sea. 

Chinese experts described the Philippines' latest remarks as a political posture to "save face," and that it signals Manila is likely to continue making provocations in the South China Sea. Yet they warned that as long as the Philippines insists on making infringing provocations in the region, China's countermeasures will only become stricter and the Philippines will not gain any advantages.

A China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson confirmed on Sunday that the Philippine Coast Guard ship MRRV-9701, which had been illegally anchored in the lagoon of Xianbin Jiao in the South China Sea since April 17, left around 2 pm on Saturday. 

Based on what the Global Time has learned, the withdrawal of ship 9701 from China's Xianbin Jiao, where it had illegally anchored for five months, occurred three days after the meeting between the heads of the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea on September 11. However, the Philippines did not notify China in advance of the withdrawal. The departure signifies the failure of this round of Philippine provocations and represents a phased step toward peace and stability in the South China Sea.

"We have not lost anything. We did not abandon anything," Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela told a news conference Monday, per AFP. 

Tarriela on Monday maintained that the withdrawal from Xiaobin Jiao was "not a defeat." He said it would be "impossible" for China to totally stop the Philippines from sending its ships around the reef. 

The remarks of Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson can be seen as a political gesture for Manila to "save face," although on another level, they reveal that the Philippines will continue making provocations in the South China Sea, said Ding Duo, a deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at the China Institute for South China Sea Studies. 

Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Tarriela told GMA Integrated News' Unang Balita in an interview on Monday that there are other Philippine Coast Guard vessels that the country intends to deploy at Xianbin Jiao and that is the plan of the Philippines' national government. 

Asked when these ships will be deployed, Tarriela said it will not take that long.

Chinese experts said that if Manila were to send another ship to Xianbin Jiao, it would only signal the Philippines' determination to act as a provocateur in the region. They warned that China's countermeasures in response to the Philippines' provocations will only escalate, and that Manila's attempts to illegally anchor at Xianbin Jiao could lead to self-inflicted harm.

Regardless of the Philippines' actions, China's policy in dealing with provocations in the South China Sea prioritizes stability, said Ding, warning that as long as the Philippines insists on making provocations, China's countermeasures will only become stricter, and the Philippines will not gain any advantages.  

Manila has been amplifying issues related to the South China Sea in hopes of gaining political, diplomatic and international public opinion benefits. However, as China's countermeasures step up, experts suggest that the Philippines now finds itself in an increasingly passive position, having gained little in return. 

US' lip service

The US said on Monday that it continued to support its ally Manila, while criticizing the "dangerous ways" Beijing tries to enforce its claim.

"It is up to the Philippines to decide how they operate their vessels in areas where it enjoys the freedom of navigation in the high seas under international law," US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said, AFP reported. 

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. said in an interview on CBS News' 60 Minutes which aired on Sunday that he expects "the US to intervene" if the Chinese tried to remove the BRP Sierra Madre from Ren'ai Jiao.   

The withdrawal of ship 9701 from China's Xianbin Jiao has highlighted the limited support the Philippines receives from the US, said Ding, noting that an increasing number of people in the Philippines are coming to realize that what is often described as US support is, in fact, little more than "lip service." Washington's tendency to offer "empty promises" is becoming increasingly evident.

Chen Xidi, a research fellow at the China Institute for Marine Affairs of the Ministry of Natural Resources said that the "Philippines should not harbor any illusions, nor is there any need to return or test China's redline by other means," and that the withdrawal of ship 9701 and its personnel from Xianbin Jiao should mark the beginning of the Philippines returning to the right track on the South China Sea dispute, rather than a mere "interlude." This is not only the shared vision of China and other countries that genuinely wish to build the South China Sea into a region of peace and cooperation, but also in the best interest of the Philippines.

Ding noted that China has demonstrated considerable patience, reflecting a responsible approach in managing the withdrawal of ship 9701. This case illustrates that whether viewed through the lens of safeguarding territorial sovereignty, maintaining regional stability or upholding the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, China's "toolbox" for addressing regional disputes is becoming increasingly diverse.

The experts also noted that China possesses the capability to respond effectively to any potential provocative actions from the US and the Philippines.