People walk along an elevated walkway under a large television screen showing images of Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba one day after the general election in Tokyo on October 28, 2024. Photo: VCG

Japan's ruling camp lost its majority in the House of Representatives in Sunday's election, dealing a heavy blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who must now look for additional support outside the coalition to run a stable government, Kyodo News reported on Monday.

The dismal results underscored deepening distrust in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) due to a slush fund scandal, signaling a seismic shift in the support that enabled it to return to power in 2012 after a spell in opposition, Kyodo said in the report.

Ishiba indicated on Monday that he intends to stay on as Japan's prime minister, Nikkei reported. 

Japan's future internal and external policies may face increasing uncertainties until the election of the upper house, which is scheduled to be held in July next year, said experts. 

According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, a series of "politics and money" scandals drove the LDP to a crushing defeat in the election of the House of Representatives, lower house of the National Diet of Japan. The LDP secured only 191 seats, 56 less than it held before the lower house was dissolved.

Combined with the seats earned by its coalition partner Komeito, the ruling bloc now holds 215 seats, not enough for a majority in the 465-seat lower house.

Komeito has 24 seats, down eight from its pre-dissolution figure, and its leader Keiichi Ishii was defeated in his constituency.  

Liu Jiangyong, vice dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations and a senior expert on Japanese studies at Tsinghua University, said the defeat of the LDP-Komeito coalition shows that the long-term rule of the LDP has brought a deep and serious problem of corruption to the party, and the newly elected prime minister has no time to effectively reform and solve this problem. 

"Corruption in the LDP is a long-existing problem, and the reason why Japanese voters choose not to tolerate this problem anymore is that the LDP also failed to prove its capability in solving economic problems," said Lü Yaodong, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Liu echoed that view, saying that "since the Abenomics during the term of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, the LDP's economic policy has boosted the stock market and benefited investors, but for the vast majority of the wage-earning class, inflation, devaluation of the yen, and the unemployment problem have made ordinary people increasingly feel angry in recent years."

Ishiba will face a difficult political environment in terms of internal governance and reform as a "lame duck," Lü Chao, director of the Institute of US and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University, said.

The post-election outlook is uncertain, with some major opposition parties that made notable gains rejecting the possibility of joining a government with the ruling bloc, Kyodo News reported. There is also analysis saying that "The chances of Ishiba still being party leader going into next July's elections are slim."

"Without a majority in the lower house, the efficiency of the government and the reforms based on the prime minister's ideas will be greatly undermined. Ishiba is unlikely to step down soon, as he was just elected and could not be held accountable for the long-existing problem of corruption within the LDP," the expert noted. 

According to Liu, Ishiba is unlikely to step down soon, since he still has a chance to seek support from other like-minded political parties with similar interests to fight for the election of the upper house in 2025. However, during this process, Ishiba will find it immensely difficult to push for his internal reform and execute foreign policies based on his own ideas, and Japan's relations with China, the US and other countries may see some impact. 

As a conservative ring-wing party, the LDP wants to push the constitutional amendment and legitimize Japan's militarization ambitions, while the main opposition parties - the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Japanese Communist Party, the Social Democratic Party, and Reiwa Shinsengumi - oppose the revision of Article 9 of the Japan's Constitution, according to media reports.

Ishiba has many ideas in terms of diplomatic and defense policies.  He has indicated to build constructive and stable ties with China after he took office, and he also called for a more equal position in the alliance with the US. He also raised the idea of building an "Asian NATO," but after his party lost the majority in the lower house, he will have to make adjustments, Liu noted.

"Relations with the US will be Japan's priority, and stabilizing China-Japan relations is good for Japan's economy, so the impact from the election results on his foreign policies might be limited. The LDP is still a conservative right-wing party, so we can't expect too much from the Ishiba administration," Lü noted.

In response to question on Japan's election, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a press briefing on Monday that the election is Japan's internal affair, and China doesn't have a comment on that.

The sustained, sound and steady development of China-Japan relations serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples. We hope that Japan will work with China in the same direction, act on the principles and consensus in the four political documents between China and Japan, comprehensively advance the strategic relationship of mutual benefit, and strive to build a constructive and stable China-Japan relationship fit for the new era, Lin said.