Residents of Chicago wait in line to cast their ballots at the Loop Supersite on November 2, 2024, ahead of the November 5 general election. Photo: VCG

World attention is focusing on the US presidential election as the political atmosphere within America is getting increasingly intense as the November 5 Election Day approaches, with multiple states, especially the swing states, preparing for potential election violence and unrest. Analysts said instead of uniting the country, the election makes the US further divided and uncertain.

The AP reported on Sunday that Democrat candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump "zeroed in on the Sun Belt (the southern states of the US) on Saturday as they embarked on one last weekend quest to sway every undecided voter in the battleground states. They pitched rival agendas on the economy - and more - that each insisted is what Americans want."

The two candidates "make their final push in swing states," as they are spending the final weekend before Election Day urging their supporters to the polls and trying to persuade any last holdouts, making their cases in a string of rallies in the South on Saturday, the New York Times reported on Saturday. 

As the campaign gets intense, the concern over possible violence caused by the election is also rising. According to Reuters on Wednesday, with the US election just days away, officials in the most competitive battleground states are bracing for misinformation, conspiracy theories, threats and possible violence.

In Philadelphia, Detroit and Atlanta, three of Trump's favorite targets for false claims of voter fraud, officials have fortified their operations against a repeat of the chaos of 2020. Philadelphia's ballot-counting warehouse is now surrounded by fencing topped with barbed wire. In Detroit and Atlanta, some election offices are protected by bullet-proof glass.

In Wisconsin, election workers have been trained on de-escalation techniques and polling stations rearranged so workers have escape routes if they are menaced by protestors.

In Arizona, an epicenter in 2020 for false claims by Republicans about rigged voting, the secretary of state is working with local officials on how to respond to misinformation, including deep-fake images of purported fraud, Reuters reported.

The concern is not just in swing states. According to Reuters, the governor of Washington state on Friday said he was activating some members of the National Guard to be on stand-by after information and concerns regarding potential violence related to the 2024 election. The state, where Democrat Kamala Harris is easily expected to defeat Trump according to polling, was one of two where ballot boxes were set on fire earlier in the week.

CNN reported that National Guard is also on standby in Oregon and Nevada as a precaution for "potential" election unrest. 

The Guardian reported on Saturday that in the last week, the US saw numerous attacks on the voting process, not only burning the ballot boxes in Oregon and Washington, but also including a bomb threat in Pennsylvania, a fight between a poll worker and a voter in San Antonio, and a person got arrested in Arizona as local authorities say the person had amassed an arsenal of weapons and ammunition and was believed to be "preparing to commit an act of mass casualty."
    
Problematic political system 

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-governmental organization for conflict prevention, said in an article published on Tuesday that, the risk of election-related violence has not been eliminated. "Partisan polarization remains high, helping create an atmosphere in which both sides claim that the election stakes are existential. Popular support for political violence has risen." 

In an April NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll on the presidential election, 20 percent of respondents agree that "Americans may have to resort to violence to get their own country back on track." 

Current projections suggest that just three states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, may wind up picking the next US president. These and other possible battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina) are the most likely hotspots in the event of a protracted fight over who won, said the ICG article.

Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Sunday his observation of the US presidential election. 

First, the judiciary has been used for political ends. Judicial system of the US is supposed to be independent from the two parties, but now the two parties are both using legal approaches to attack each other; second, the policymaking is politicized, as policies are no longer serving the interest of the public but have absolute connection with the interests of the two parties, Jin said. 

In addition, US politicians are not going to accept and acknowledge defeat easily, Jin said. "The US society is highly divided, and will it be further divided after this election?" 

Shen Yi, a professor of international relations at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Sunday that "according to the polls, the gap between the two candidates will be very close, so whoever wins the election eventually, the other side and their supporters are very likely to doubt and challenge the result. Throughout the whole election campaign, both sides have claimed that the election this year matters for the future of US democracy, or it's a matter about survival of the country, in addition to that one of the candidates has been shot in an assassination attempt, hence many people worry that neither Democrats nor Republicans will be ready to accept the defeat peacefully."

Allies worry about policy change

The US presidential election is not only making its own people concerned, but also countries around the globe, especially US allies that are deeply affected by US policy. 

The US' European allies "are bracing for an America that's less interested in them no matter who wins the presidential election - and for old traumas and new problems if Donald Trump returns to the White House," said a report by the Voice of America on Thursday. 

The election comes more than 2 1/2 years into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in which Washington has made the single biggest contribution to Kiev's defense. There are question marks over whether that would continue under Trump, and how committed he would be to NATO allies in general, said the VOA report.

Shen said with the uncertainty increasing in the US, countries around the world are likely to make more efforts to keep distance with the US when making significant decisions in the future, as they need to prevent risks of frequent policy U-turns in Washington.