EU flag. Photo: VCG

In recent years, influenced by the escalating Ukraine crisis and turbulence in transatlantic relations, European politics has seen a notable shift. The influence of peripheral countries within the EU is rapidly increasing. The term "peripheral countries" refers to some EU member states that are on the geographical periphery, compared to core Western European countries like France and Germany, and also candidate countries outside the EU that are seeking to join.

For a long time, the relationship between the EU and peripheral countries has been largely asymmetrical, with the EU setting demands for the peripheral countries, which in turn accepted the EU's laws and rules. The enlargement process has been seen as an important tool for the EU to promote its values and influence on neighboring countries. In recent years, however, this relationship has been changing, with peripheral countries beginning to assert more influence over the EU's internal and external policies, especially in topics such as the Ukraine crisis, the refugee issue and the EU's strategic direction.

First, peripheral countries are pushing the EU to adopt a tougher stance on Russia. While Germany and France have largely had the biggest influence over EU policy toward Russia, the influence of some peripheral countries from Northern and Eastern Europe has been growing. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Germany and France were criticized for their "failed" past policies toward Russia, while countries like Poland and the Baltic States, which had advocated a hardline approach to Russia, seized the "politically correct" position and pushed the EU to adopt a tougher stance toward Russia.

Second, peripheral countries are pushing the EU to take a more radical approach to the refugee issue. In 2015, the EU experienced a large-scale refugee crisis that caused significant political and social trauma, fueling the rise of far-right populism and exacerbating ethnic tensions. To this day, the refugee issue remains one of the EU's top priorities. In 2023, the number of refugees entering Europe through irregular channels exceeded 350,000, the highest number since 2016. New conflicts, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, have led to an increase in the number of refugees and regional instability, putting additional pressure on the EU.

Greece, Italy and other Southern European countries, as the frontline for refugees entering Europe, have long called on the EU to increase support in addressing the refugee crisis, but have not received sufficient support. In recent years, with the EU shifting to the right as a whole, countries like Greece and Italy have increasingly adopted stricter and more radical refugee policies, including setting up asylum processing centers in countries such as Albania, Turkey and Tunisia.

Third, there is a push to further align the EU with the US. Some peripheral EU countries, especially certain Nordic and Eastern European states, are not particularly enthusiastic about advancing the European integration process. 

As "Atlanticists," they have significant doubts about European strategic autonomy, fearing that it would alienate the US. Due to both historical and current background, these countries tend to harbor strong anti-Russian sentiments, calling for more US and NATO troops to be stationed in their territories. 

These countries believe that Germany and France, along with the EU, cannot provide adequate security guarantees and that European security can only rely on the US and its leadership in NATO. This explains why leaders of major countries like France and Germany have been vocally advocating for the EU's strategic autonomy, but the pursuit of strategic autonomy has still not become a universal consensus within the EU.

In terms of trends, the EU's "decentralization" process will continue to develop, and the "Franco-German axis" is gradually losing control over the EU's strategic direction. The influence of smaller, louder peripheral countries will continue to grow. Whether this influence is positive or negative, and whether it will have a beneficial or detrimental impact on the EU, will remain a topic of increasing attention and debate both within and outside the EU.

The author is vice president of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn