Workers work at the construction site of the Sanya River estuary passage project in Sanya, south China's Hainan Province, Oct. 12, 2024. (Photo: Xinhua)

Entering the fourth quarter, a number of Chinese localities have been either accelerating the implementation of major projects or scaling up investments in those projects, a trend which analysts said will serve as a "ballast" to stabilize economic growth at year-end while also underpinning the world's second-largest economy's efforts to hit the annual economic growth target of around 5 percent.

In October, the nationwide operating rate of construction machinery jumped by 1.6 percentage points compared with September, according to data released by the State Information Center. Out of 31 Chinese provincial-level regions, 28 recorded a month-on-month rise in operating rates, indicating a steady rebound in construction project intensity.

In terms of individual localities, in the first 10 months, Southwest China's Chongqing Municipality completed investment in key projects worth 400.3 billion yuan ($55.27 billion), reaching 88.1 percent of the annual planned schedule. The growth was led by the construction of key manufacturing projects, according to a report released by the Chongqing Municipal Government on Wednesday.

In early October, a total of 551 projects were inaugurated in East China's Anhui Province as the local authorities initiated the construction of the fourth tranche of key projects. The projects, with a total investment of 426.81 billion yuan, have an annual planned investment quota amounting to 42.61 billion yuan this year, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

Wang Peng, an associate research fellow at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Thursday that the fourth quarter is traditionally a peak season for construction and a crucial window of opportunity to boost the economy. 

"In this regard, the launch of numerous major projects in October will not only drive investments but also stimulate the development of related industrial chains, thereby stabilizing macroeconomic operation in the year-end," Wang noted.

Cong Yi, a professor at the Tianjin School of Administration, pointed out that the construction of major projects will also have great ramifications for achieving both local and national economic targets for the year. 

As one of the important levers for boosting infrastructure investment, the accelerated issuance of special bonds has also helped speed up the investment and construction of major projects. China will issue 3.9 trillion yuan of special-purpose bonds for local governments in 2024, and according to media reports, a total of 1,109 new special bonds were issued across various regions in the first 10 months, with a scale totaling approximately 3.8965 trillion yuan.

In addition to special-purpose bonds, multiple sources of funding continue to supplement local government financial resources. For example, as of Wednesday, 950 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been issued this year, with another 50 billion yuan to be issued during the rest of the year, domestic media outlet thepaper.cn reported.

"From the current policy perspective, we have favorable conditions for achieving the annual economic targets. The fiscal policies and financial credit conditions provide strong support for the completion of major and key projects, and expand the vitality of local economies," Cong told the Global Times on Thursday.

Growing confidence

With the implementation of a package of incremental policies, in addition to investment, a number of economic indicators in the areas of consumption, industry, and business have recently rebounded since entering the fourth quarter.

On Thursday morning, China's annual production of new energy vehicles (NEVs) surpassed 10 million units for the first time, topping the annual output of 9.59 million NEV units in 2023. It made China the first country in the world to achieve this milestone, CCTV News reported on Thursday.

The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index, based on a survey of 3,000 small and medium-sized enterprises across eight major industries, reached 89 in October, 0.3 points higher than in September, according to a report from the China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises. This growth rate marked the largest increase this year and the highest since March 2023, the association reported.

Moreover, from October 21 to November 10, the national express delivery volume reached about 12.082 billion items, an increase of 21.4 percent year-on-year.

Recently released foreign trade data also had a bright performance. In October, China's trade in goods imports and exports rose 4.6 percent year-on-year, accelerated by nearly 4 percentage points from September. Exports volume stood at 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2 percent, hitting a new high since April 2023.

Zhao Shuogang, an official from the State Information Center, said in an interview with people.cn that in the fourth quarter, China's economy is expected to continue to improve steadily and achieve the expected growth target for the whole year, boosted by strengthening macro-policy and improving market expectations.

On Thursday, Nomura raised its forecast for China's GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 

"We are raising our year-on-year Q4 GDP growth forecasts to 4.9 percent from 4.4 percent, based on the cash-for-clunkers trade-in program funded by China's ultra-long special government bonds, an improvement in new home sales, a rebound in export growth and elevated stock trading," it said in a note sent to the Global Times on Thursday.

With China recently announcing a series of policies to support economic growth, Goldman Sachs said that it has raised its estimate for China's GDP growth in 2024 to 4.9 percent from 4.7 percent, said Hui Shan, a China economist in Goldman Sachs Research.

Cong said that the upward revision of GDP forecasts by foreign investment institutions reflected their confidence in China's policy environment and their positive outlook for the economy.

During the World Bank's 110th meeting of the Development Committee on October 25 in Washington DC, Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min said that China is confident in achieving the annual economic growth target, and will continue to inject impetus into global economic growth.