South Korea's opposition parties submit a motion on December 4, 2024 to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol over the shocking and short-lived martial law. Photo: VCG

The political turbulence in South Korea caused by the sudden declaration of emergency martial law by President Yoon Suk-yeol on Tuesday night, which was lifted six hours later, has brought high uncertainties to the country. As opposition parties launched a motion to impeach the president on Wednesday, experts said the Yoon administration is losing support and the impact to South Korea will be complex.

In response to the brief emergency martial law South Korea imposed, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China noted relevant events and will not comment on South Korea's domestic affairs. "China has asked its nationals in the South Korea to take extra safety precautions. We hope the South Korea will take effective measures to protect the safety and security of Chinese nationals and institutions in South Korea," Lin added.

President Yoon held a meeting with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and leaders of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) likely to discuss follow-up measures after opposition parties submitted an impeachment motion in response to the short-lived martial law declaration, Yonhap News reported.

Earlier on Wednesday, the main opposition Democratic Party and five other minor opposition parties, including the Rebuilding Korea Party and Reform Party, submitted the motion to the bills office at the National Assembly at 2:43 pm. The impeachment motion was signed by 190 opposition lawmakers and one independent lawmaker, with no support from any ruling party lawmakers.

The opposition parties plan to report the motion to a parliamentary plenary session on Thursday and to put it up for a vote on Friday or Saturday. By law, an impeachment motion must be put to a vote between 24 and 72 hours after the motion is reported to a plenary session, according to Yonhap. 

The impeachment motion requires a two-thirds majority to pass the parliament. Of the 300-member National Assembly, the opposition will need eight votes from the ruling People Power Party to pass the bill, Yonhap reported.

There were multiple reasons that pushed Yoon to make that unwise decision, including the investigation against his wife and other family members, the split within the ruling party which is distancing from him, his declining approval rating, as well as tension with main opposition party, said Zheng Jiyong, director of the Center for Korean Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, adding that Yoon took the risky move, hoping to get through the difficult situation by declaring emergency martial law. 

Lü Chao, an expert on East Asian studies at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the emergency martial law declared by Yoon was not a well-planed decision, but was more like a "stress reaction," and it seems like he has been greatly impacted by family issues, such as the investigation into his wife Kim Keon-hee.

Yoon's presidency has been mired in multiple scandals, and many are centered around the first lady Kim, who was accused of corruption and influence peddling - most notably allegedly accepting a Dior bag from a pastor, media reported. In November, Yoon apologized on behalf of his wife while rejecting calls for an investigation into her activities, BBC reported. In early November, Yoon's approval ratings tumbled to 17 percent, a record low since he took office, according to media report.

Now the consequences are clear, as Yoon is not only strongly opposed by opposition parties, he is also losing support from the ruling party, and his administration faces serious challenges as multiple key members have resigned, Lü said.  

According to Yonhap, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun on Wednesday apologized for causing public concern over Yoon's attempt to impose martial law and offered to resign. 

Other senior aides, including Yoon's chief of staff, also offered to resign en masse on Wednesday, the presidential office said, after the National Assembly blocked Yoon's surprise declaration of martial law. They include Chung Jin-suk, presidential chief of staff, National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik and Sung Tae-yoon, chief of staff for policy, as well as seven other senior aides.

According to South Korean media Chosun Daily, if the motion to impeach passes, the Constitutional Court would then deliberate on whether to uphold the impeachment. Currently, only six of the nine Constitutional Court justices are seated, as the tenures of Chief Justice Lee Jong-seok and Justices Lee Young-jin and Kim Ki-young ended in October, leaving three vacancies. Parliament has yet to recommend successors for these positions. Under the Constitutional Court Act, Article 23, at least seven justices must participate in deliberations. A presidential removal requires a minimum of six justices to agree. This vacancy raises concerns that the impeachment case could face significant delays or complications.

Considering the opposition's determination to impeach Yoon and the domestic situation, Yoon's political career faces great uncertainties and challenges, Chinese expert noted

"Of course, there are also some ways to avoid impeachment, such as cutting short the presidential term from five years to four years through a constitutional revision," Zheng added.

Complicated impact

The turbulence did not escalate into mass violence and conflict, and it appears that the impact is limited at this moment as the tension has eased, however the lingering uncertainty will likely impact the country's economy and damage the confidence of foreign investors, experts noted.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its 2025 growth outlook for the South Korean economy to 2.1 percent, Seoul's finance ministry said Wednesday, Yonhap reported. The latest figure marks a 0.1 percentage-point fall from its earlier projection presented in September, the ministry said, citing the latest report by the organization.

The OECD's projection, however, remains slightly more optimistic than recent estimates from both domestic and international institutions. It exceeds the International Monetary Fund's growth forecast of 2 percent for Asia's fourth-largest economy and surpasses the Bank of Korea's outlook of 1.9 percent.

A Seoul-based Chinese national surnamed Li who works in software development industry in South Korea told the Global Times on Wednesday that everyone was paying great attention and was seriously concerned at midnight, but by Wednesday, when everyone saw that the tension has been generally eased, the panic ebbed away. "Daily life has not been impacted, everything seems normal around me, but many people are going to supermarkets to buy stuff due to the concern caused by the martial law," Li noted. 

According to the Korean Times, sales of food, water and other essentials surged late on Tuesday night after Yoon's martial law declaration, indicating that worried citizens hurried to stock up in case the military intervention disrupted their usual shopping routines.

Both on and offline stores saw items being sold faster than usual. People rushed to certain online shopping platforms, causing bottlenecks and taking business operators hours to ship ordered purchases to their customers.

A South Korean national based in Seoul who asked for anonymity told the Global Times on Wednesday that "people are very upset about the martial law announced on Tuesday night, and now this makes our country looks very embarrassing in front of the world, but fortunately, there was no violence or casualties. We hope public order can be restored and we want to see a more qualified government to lead this country."