The US Missile Defense Agency successfully intercepts an air-launched intermediate range ballistic missile target during a test off Guam for the first time, the Pentagon claims on December 10, 2024. Photo: Screenshot from the website of the US Defense Visual Information Distribution Service

The Pentagon claimed it recently conducted the first time a ballistic missile intercept test from Guam, a military outpost in the Western Pacific at China’s doorstep. However, a Chinese military expert questioned the interceptor’s capability in potential saturation attacks or against advanced hypersonic missiles.

The US Missile Defense Agency successfully intercepted an air-launched intermediate range ballistic missile target during a test off Guam for the first time, the Pentagon claimed on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

Reuters noted that Guam, a US territory in the Western Pacific, is a strategic military outpost that is located closer to China than to Hawaii, and it plays a crucial role in “maintaining US presence in the region and deterring potential adversaries.”

The US Defense Visual Information Distribution Service (DVIDS) released a video of the test. It claimed that during the flight experiment, the Aegis Guam System integrated with the new AN/TPY-6 radar and Vertical Launching System, fired a Standard Missile-3 Block IIA which intercepted an air-launched Medium Range Ballistic Missile target off the coast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

The AN/TPY-6 radar tracked the target shortly after launch to intercept in the first end-to-end tracking use of the radar during a live ballistic missile flight test, DVIDS claimed.

Zhang Xuefeng, a Chinese military expert, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the Standard Missile-3 Block IIA is a mid-course antiballistic missile system, and its interceptor is primarily designed to intercept incoming intermediate-range ballistic missile outside of the atmosphere. The test served to examine the US’ newly built Aegis system with the AN/TPY-6 radar and the new launcher.

Despite the claimed successful launch, Zhang said that the question lies in the probability of interception. He explained that under large-scale saturation attacks, it is not realistic for the anti-missile system to intercept all targets. More advanced ballistic missiles can maneuver in flight and can deploy decoys, which will further lower the probability of interception.

Zhang further pointed out that the procurement of the Standard Missile-3 is very limited due to its high cost, making it impractical for intercepting large-scale attacks.

In addition, cruise missiles and some hypersonic missiles fly within the atmosphere, so the US intercept system has a very low chance of intercepting them, Zhang said.

The reason why the US deploys and tests antiballistic missile systems on Guam is because it is using Guam as a military base to project its forces near China, and wants to protect its military assets, Song Zhongping, another Chinese military expert, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Against the backdrop of Russia’s deployment of Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missile and China’s commissioning of the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile the US missile defense system has little chance of completely intercepting these modern missiles, Song said.

The US may have felt the urgency to send a signal to the outside world, showing that its missile defense system on Guam is being gradually developed, and that is probably a reason why the interception test was conducted, according to Zhang.