Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

 
Like many other countries, South Korea has reacted strongly to the upcoming transition of power in the US, fearing that the South Korea-US alliance and the situation on the Korean Peninsula will face a range of uncertainties. The current political turmoil triggered by President Yoon Suk-yeol's move to impose martial law has certainly shaken the country's confidence and ability to cope with external uncertainties in the near term. 

South Korea has concerns about the incoming US administration.

First, there are worries that the "monetization" of the South Korea-US alliance could lead to friction in bilateral relations and diminish the US' security guarantees for South Korea. The new US administration may require South Korea to cover the costs of joint military exercises and the deployment of strategic US weapons on its territory. If these demands are not met, the US might threaten to scale back its troop presence in South Korea and suspend large-scale joint military exercises.

Second, South Korea and the US may experience tensions over economic and trade issues, which could in turn damage South Korea's economic interests. Seoul is concerned that the new US administration may impose 10 to 20 percent tariffs on all imports into the US. Additionally, if Washington amends the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, it could significantly affect the subsidies of large companies, such as Samsung and SK Group, which have large-scale investments in the US. It may also have a considerable impact on South Korea's auto exports to the country.

Furthermore, the political aftermath of Yoon's move of imposing martial law has led to a more unpredictable political situation in South Korea in the near future. This makes it difficult for Seoul not only to conduct diplomacy in the short term, but also to make major foreign policy decisions. The martial law drama has already caused the cancellation or postponement of various bilateral and multilateral events, including the Nuclear Consultative Group with South Korea and a visit by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. According to Japanese media on Tuesday, a senior Japanese government official said a planned visit by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to South Korea in January, postponed for now, "has become almost impossible" to realize.

What is most worrying for South Korea is that with a possibly weakened leader and government, it may face even more pressure from the incoming US administration. In that case, Seoul may have to adopt a more pro-Washington policy in exchange for US political, diplomatic and security support. However, this, in turn, will cause a greater public backlash in South Korea, thus reducing the room for its diplomacy with the US.

South Korea is currently governed by a pro-US government, making it more inclined to accept US demands rather than oppose them. However, what lies underneath such "acceptance" is the fact that its significant asymmetric dependence on the US in terms of security and economy has compelled it to succumb to US demands on various issues.

The author is the director and professor of the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at the Shanghai University of International Business and Economics. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn