Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

A wise sailor navigates by the stars, not by the waves. Yet, the Philippines' foreign policy resembles a ship that has lost its direction, blindly catering to the strategic deployments of external powers in the Asia-Pacific region. Not only has it changed its course on the South China Sea issue, but it has also introduced the Typhon mid-range missile system and even proposed a brazen "transaction," claiming it would remove the Typhon system if China ceases its so-called "aggressive and coercive behavior" in the South China Sea.

The current Philippine administration's foreign policy has been marked by opportunism. At the beginning of its term, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr visited China, pledging to maintain dialogue, continue friendly relations, strengthen trust, and manage maritime differences through dialogue and consultation. Yet, soon after these words had been spoken, the Philippines began amplifying maritime disputes, repeatedly provoking incidents, exaggerating minor conflicts and inviting external powers to turn the South China Sea into an arena for major-power rivalry.

Despite making promises of not taking sides between major powers or escalating tensions, the Philippines swiftly backtracked, by opening new military bases facing the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits. This has led the Philippines further down a dangerous path, linking the deployment of the Typhon system to the South China Sea issue, introducing geopolitical confrontation and arms race risks into the region, and gambling with national security, public welfare and regional stability - a textbook case of "inviting wolves into the house."

Let's revisit the timeline of the Philippines' deployment of the Typhon system: In April 2024, the Typhon system arrived in the Philippines, with repeated assurances from Manila that it was only a "temporary deployment," promising to withdraw it by September of that year. However, the Philippines repeatedly broke its promises, even suggesting plans to purchase the mid-range missile systems. 

Next, the US and the Philippines would conduct multiple annual joint exercises, with the Typhon system remaining under the guise of participation, effectively leading to an indefinite deployment. Looking back, it becomes clear that this is all part of a calculated US strategy. First, covertly delivering the system, then using media exposure to establish a fait accompli, and finally shifting blame to the dispute between China and the Philippines to mask the true intent of the US to forward-deploy its land-based mid-range missile systems.

A closer look exposes the Philippines as a mere pawn in the Typhon chess game. While the Philippine military talks extravagantly about purchasing the Typhon system, they avoid mentioning its reliance on complex software, hardware and logistical support - capabilities Manila sorely lacks. Even if the Philippines funds the purchase, operational control of the Typhon system will likely remain in US hands. By staking national security on this gamble, the Philippines ultimately labors in vain for the benefit of others. 

Some visionary people in the Philippines have clearly recognized the dangers of introducing the Typhon system. Some former Philippine officials have publicly criticized the current government's foreign policy as "short-sighted and dangerous," warning that "the Philippines should not become a pawn in major power games." Some prominent Philippine politicians have bluntly stated that the current foreign policy "deviates from national interests," leading the country down a "dangerous path." Some senators have expressed concerns that the missile's launch button is not under Philippine control, and "foreigners could decide when to turn the Philippines into a battlefield." 

Regional countries have also voiced concerns over Manila's alignment with the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" at the expense of regional peace and development. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto stated that "collaboration - not confrontation - is the way for peace and prosperity." Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim emphasized that the South China Sea issue must be resolved among ASEAN member countries and China, without the interference of external parties, which would complicate the matter.

 Leaders from several Southeast Asian countries have reiterated on various occasions that the region will not take sides in the China-US competition. Kin Phea, director general of the International Relations Institute at the Royal Academy of Cambodia, noted that the Philippines seeks support from external powers, like the US and Japan, on the South China Sea issue. But these countries don't prefer any peaceful solution and try to make the problem even bigger.

The Philippines' foreign policy has sparked deep concern among its citizens. Many experts, scholars and media figures have pointed out that what the Philippines needs is a peaceful and stable regional environment, not endless confrontation, as most citizens prioritize economic development and peaceful coexistence with China.

From a broader perspective, the Philippines has clearly underestimated the complexity and ruthlessness of international political dynamics. The US, as a "steadfast ally" of Ukraine, abruptly engaged in negotiations with Russia, leaving Ukraine and Europe unprepared, reducing them from diners at the table to dishes on the menu. Will the Philippines become the next dish for the US? We cannot say for sure. But what we do know is that independence is the best way to safeguard national interests. Jeffrey Sachs, a prominent US economist, recently addressed the European Parliament, urging European countries to adopt more independent foreign policies, and not blindly follow the US stance. For the Philippines, the words of Henry Kissinger still ring true: "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." By sacrificing its long-term national interests to act as a pawn for external powers - and even provoking China to curry favor - the Philippines miscalculates catastrophically, risking becoming cannon fodder and steering itself toward disaster.

Recently, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) naval fleet transited the Basilan Strait, and the PLA and China Coast Guard conducted patrols near Huangyan. These actions clearly and powerfully demonstrate that China will never sit idly by while its security interests are threatened. China has the firm resolve and strong capability to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests. The Philippine government should seriously heed the rational voices both domestically and internationally, recognize China's determination to protect its national interests, re-examine its foreign policy, cease its confrontational actions on the South China Sea issue and its betrayal on the Typhon issue, and return to a rational and pragmatic path. Only then can it make the right choices that serve the fundamental interests of the Philippine nation and its people.

The author is an international observer. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn