Illustration: VCG

Editor's Note:

The recent calls by some US figures for "US withdrawal from NATO" have sent shockwaves through Europe. For decades, Europe's security architecture has heavily relied on the US-led NATO framework. Amid the current instability, Europe's contemplation of its own long-term security has deepened further. Can the EU break free from its long-standing reliance on NATO for security? How can Europe "return to itself" and strive for its own interests, autonomy, and identity? The Global Times consulted four European scholars to gather their perspectives.

Zivadin Jovanovic, president of the Belgrade Forum for a World of Equals who served as the minister of foreign affairs of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia between 1998 and 2000

It has been a long time since some European leaders noted that EU has been treated as a vassal of the US and that Europe should make a turn "toward itself" to work for its own interests, autonomy and identity. However, these views have never been transformed into practice. Different approaches and particularistic interests prevailed.
The new policy announcements of the new US administration have provoked confusion and uncertainty among European allies. 

For them, news from Washington was too quick, too much and too striking. Many questions appeared: Will the US stay in NATO? Why do some demand that Europe must pay for its own defense? Will Europe be included in the peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine? Will Europe be included in other topics of global significance? 
Concerning NATO, it is interesting to note that in recent weeks, amid unprecedented developments and intensive political activities, it has maintained a low profile. I presume this has not been a choice made by Brussels, but rather by Washington, which has visibly prioritized diplomacy over military action. Otherwise, I believe that NATO's future is one of dissolution. It represents a heavy burden from the Cold War era, responsible for causing massive deaths of innocent people, displacing millions of refugees and fragmenting states, nations, and cultures. 

The best way for Europe to return to itself, its own interests, identity and prosperity is to concentrate on building a new security and cooperation order based on equal security and equal opportunities for all.

Efe Can Gürcan, visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science and adjunct professor at Shanghai University

While NATO has undoubtedly played a critical role in European security during the Cold War, what it has done in the post-Cold War era is instill a strong illusion that Europe is inherently dependent on the US for its defense. However, the rigid geopolitical divisions of the Cold War are no longer relevant. In today's increasingly multipolar world, power is becoming more decentered. Instead of rigid, long-term alliances, modern international relations are driven by fluid, pragmatic coalitions that shift based on mutual interests. This trend, in turn, diminishes NATO's overall relevance. Europe has both the resources and the experience to maintain its own security without the US - yet what's truly at stake is not only capability, but political will and strategic vision.

The real question is not one of feasibility - we already know that Europe possesses the resources, military expertise and strategic infrastructure to defend itself without NATO or the US. The real issue is that moving away from this reliance is no longer a "luxury" - it has become a "historical necessity."

NATO's credibility and relevance are steadily declining, making Europe's reliance on the alliance increasingly untenable. This irreversible shift in US political dynamics means that Europe can never fully rely on the US for long-term strategic security. Instead of waiting for another diplomatic crisis to expose NATO's fragility, Europe should take proactive steps toward greater strategic autonomy.

The key questions for Europe should not be military but economic: How will it rebuild its economy? How will it address deepening inequalities within and among its member states? How will it modernize to regain global competitiveness? 

In other words, Europe's emphasis on expanding its military capabilities is based on a false and superficial agenda. Prioritizing militarization over economic renewal and multilateralism is not the solution - it is part of the problem.

Henk Overbeek, an emeritus professor of international relations at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Currently, the US and Russia seem on the verge of agreeing a settlement of the war in Ukraine and a broader rapprochement between Washington and Moscow. In such a situation, it is obviously urgent for Europeans to review their security situation and their ability to defend themselves. But they must also ask themselves whether they really want to opt for a future in which Russia is a permanent enemy and in which they are trapped in a new Cold War and an arms race fueled by distrust and animosity. 
If the US were to withdraw from NATO, Europe's defense capabilities would be significantly weakened, especially in intelligence and logistics, which depend almost entirely on US involvement. This vulnerability is not primarily due to European negligence but rather reflects NATO's original design: as an institution that projects American hegemony over Europe, offering protection and imposing dependence at the same time.

Europe - distinct from the EU - possesses the economic, financial and technological means to establish its own defense system. However, for Europe to effectively move away from its current reliance on NATO for defense, a broad political consensus among governments, political elites and the wider population is essential - a consensus that has not yet been achieved. 

The situation has become very fluid recently, and if the governments of the UK, France, Germany and Poland can put forward concrete, effective and plausible proposals, the strategic climate in Europe may shift very rapidly. Organizing Europe's self-defense properly must be accompanied by diplomatic initiatives aimed at peaceful coexistence in Europe and the pursuit of peaceful cooperation with other powers such as China and India.

Pascal Boniface, founding director of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs

The world order established after World War II, particularly for the Western world, has come to an end. Europeans must wake up from their denial of reality. It is crucial to begin preparing for a new world and, regardless of any regrets one may have, to understand that the old world has vanished. 

Certainly, the unilateralism of the US did not begin with the new US administration. The Iraq War, the contempt for international law, the use of its power to impose its will on allies and rivals… all of this is not new. But the new US administration has pushed it to previously unknown extremes. In a way, it is waking up the Europeans. This brutality must help end the strategic blindness in which the EU had been trapped for far too long. 

The fact that the new German chancellor has stated that the EU must achieve independence from the US shows that this shift is now acknowledged by more European leaders, whereas only France previously held this view. A new phase is opening: If the president and vice-president of the US declare that NATO no longer exists as we know it, conclusions must be drawn. European strategic autonomy is no longer a wish, it has become a vital necessity. The EU has no other choice. In reality, the EU is perceived as an enemy by the current US administration. Regarding issues such as climate change, the UN and multilateralism, the EU finds itself at odds with the US. On certain issues, the EU is even sometimes closer to China than to Washington.